Climate change is reshaping the environment of near-Earth space in ways that could significantly limit the number of satellites able to safely operate in low Earth orbit by the end of the century, a new study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) warns.
The research, published Monday in the Nature Sustainability magazine, found that greenhouse gas emissions are shrinking the upper atmosphere, particularly the thermosphere, where the International Space Station (ISS) and most satellites orbit.
As the thermosphere shrinks, the air in the upper atmosphere becomes thinner, reducing the natural drag that usually slows down old satellites and space debris, causing them to fall and burn up.
With less drag, defunct satellites and space junk will stay in orbit much longer, increasing the risk of collisions and making low Earth orbit more crowded, the study says.
Researchers estimate that by 2100, the carrying capacity of key orbital regions could drop by 50%-66% if emissions continue rising.
The study also underscores the need for emission reductions and careful management of satellite launches.
