Those who discuss and write about war scenarios are more inclined to believe that conflict will escalate. In the case of Iran's relationship with Israel, the question of when Iran will attack Israel dominates the agenda of global media, growing more urgent with each passing day and hour.
Wars throughout history often erupt when tensions peak, the risk is immense, and when conflict between two nations threatens to engulf humanity. In times like these, when discussions of war dominate the discourse, I sense that the possibility of peace might emerge unexpectedly.
When the speech of Israeli Prime Minister Benajmin Netanyahu, seemingly possessed by the spirit of Hitler, received a standing ovation at the U.S. Capitol, it was more than just a gesture of support; it symbolized American approval of the killing of 40,000 civilians and an endorsement of Netanyahu's atrocities. While this may be rooted in American domestic politics and despite the well-known affiliation of all American senators and representatives with the Jewish organization American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), it is still difficult to accept that the entire U.S. Congress could be enslaved by Zionism. It may sound like a joke, but those familiar with the inner workings of the United States know this is the reality.
Netanyahu's standing ovation is not only an endorsement of the killing of 40,000 civilians and his various atrocities, but it is also an endorsement of the further madness to come.
In these circumstances, Israel's killing of Hezbollah's chief of staff and the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, the negotiator representing Hamas in Doha, indicate that war seems inevitable and that apocalyptic scenarios are becoming the only foreseeable outcome.
However, the seriousness of the threat posed by Iran and Hezbollah has prompted the U.S. and the countries of the region, particularly Egypt and Türkiye, to look for ways to stop this war and its course.
One of the remedies sought is an accelerated and limited Iranian intervention, which could raise the option of discussing a permanent process between Hezbollah and Israel. But the anger on both sides is immense, and there seems to be only one way out.
If a permanent cease-fire between Hamas and Netanyahu were to be established, Hezbollah might adopt a cautious stance, and Iran could potentially endorse the agreement. In light of recent setbacks, Iran and Hezbollah might choose to remain passive in the face of such a peace initiative, with Iran acknowledging its recent losses and Hezbollah similarly refraining from opposition due to its own challenges.
However, when states with a long-standing tradition face significant challenges or perceive a humiliating intervention, they often channel their frustrations toward other states. This pattern is evident in historical and contemporary contexts, such as the strained relations between Russia and the U.S. or Türkiye’s periodic confrontations with adversaries. Historically and presently, significant powers tend to uphold a sense of dignity and, over time, may eventually seek revenge for perceived insults or injustices.
If there is a peace negotiation between Israel and Hamas and it is concluded in a just manner, both Hezbollah and Iran would be willing to go along with it.
Often, the prevailing scenario involves a sequence where Iran launches attacks on Israel, the U.S. retaliates against Iran, and the Mediterranean and the Middle East spiral into a conflict-ridden crisis. However, considering the current global situation, the world is not in a state that can endure a significant war in the Middle East. The geopolitical and economic pressures of today make such a conflict particularly untenable.
In anticipation of a potential Iranian attack, significant disruptions have occurred in stock markets across the U.S., the Far East, Japan, and other regions. There has been a surge in emergency oil purchases as markets brace for possible shortages. Should a conflict erupt, particularly with U.S. involvement, the situation in the region could rapidly escalate into a severe crisis, with profound implications for global stability and economic conditions.
Recently, Türkiye has been intensifying its diplomatic efforts. In this regard, it would be wise for Türkiye to contemplate the renewal of peace with Israel. This strategy could help prevent a significant conflict and offer an opportunity to reshape regional dynamics.
Should the United States, Türkiye, Egypt, and other influential countries intensify their efforts, Russia and China might also take a favorable stance. At a moment when the threat of war is at its peak, a quiet peace agreement could emerge as a significant item on the global agenda.
Let's see what the Almighty will bring...
