The diplomatic rift between Tel Aviv and Ankara, stemming from Israel's actions in Gaza against Palestinian civilians, has escalated to a new level, transcending mere diplomatic exchanges to involve the intelligence agencies of both nations.
The new dimension of the tensions, which surpasses diplomatic remarks and now involves the two countries’ intelligence agencies, emerged following a controversial and hostile remark by Ronen Bar, the chief of Israel's domestic security agency Shin Bet.
"The Cabinet has set us a goal, in street talk, to eliminate Hamas. This is our Munich. We will do this everywhere, in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Türkiye, in Qatar. It will take a few years but we will be there to do it," Bar said in a recording broadcast on Israeli state television KAN. In a way, Bar was underlining that Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 incidents will include assassinations similar to Israel’s response to the killings of members of the Israeli Olympic team in 1972.
Bar’s message, which includes some direct and some indirect messages coded between the lines, received an immediate response from Turkish intelligence. Intelligence sources told Turkish media that Turkish authorities had informed Israeli intelligence that any attempt by Israel to assassinate members of the Palestinian group Hamas living in Türkiye would result in “serious consequences.”
On Wednesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made his first remarks on the matter to journalists accompanying him on the presidential plane on his way back from his two-day visit to Qatar, where he attended the 44th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.
"If they dare to take such a step against Türkiye and the Turkish people, they will be doomed to pay a price which they cannot recover from," Erdoğan said and added, “Those who attempt such a thing should not forget that the consequences can be dire. No one is unaware of Türkiye's progress in both intelligence and security fields worldwide. Additionally, we are not a newly established state.”
Indeed, Israel, if anyone, knows the new level of operational capability and capacity of Turkish intelligence, MIT. From precise and targeted cross-border operations against the members of terrorist organizations to prevention of threats domestically, Turkish intelligence under Hakan Fidan, who is now the foreign minister, has reached a new level of visible success. The agency is now led by Ibrahim Kalın, one of the key aides to Erdoğan. Kalın has also worked closely with both Fidan and then-Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.
In addition, Turkish intelligence in recent years has also minimized the ability of other intelligence services, including Iranian and Israeli spies – as the Turkish media has covered the operations against their networks – within Turkish borders.
It is no secret that Hamas members have paid visits to Türkiye, as Türkiye considers them a political entity. Nevertheless, while Israel would know that there are no armed members of Hamas in Türkiye, Bar’s remarks expose another level of discomfort in Tel Aviv against Ankara.
Indeed, Türkiye has been not only the loudest voice against Israel’s atrocities against Palestinian women and children in Gaza, where more than 16,000 civilians have been killed, it has also been a strong diplomatic force that seeks to establish global pressure on Israel and Tel Aviv’s Western supporters.
Moreover, President Erdoğan’s support for Gaza and his criticism against Israel is emerging as a new narrative that isolates Israel due to its indiscriminate attacks against Palestinians and invasion of their lands.
There are several key moments in this new narrative creation.
First and most recent is Erdoğan’s likening of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Slobodan Milošević, who was described as the "Butcher of the Balkans" and faced a genocide and war crimes trial until 2006, when he died. Erdoğan called Netanyahu "the Butcher of Gaza" and has been saying that "Bibi" will be put on trial for crimes committed in Gaza.
Secondly, the traditional wave of international support for Israel, especially in the West, is now shifting to a position that harshly criticizes Israel’s actions against innocent Gazan civilians. Ankara's rhetoric, humanitarian efforts, and more importantly, diplomatic initiatives play a significant role in this. From boycotts to protests, to new narratives, Turkish officials spend significant energy supporting Gaza. Undeniably, one of the key "narrative" moments for exposing the reality of Israeli occupation came from Foreign Minister Fidan.
“You (Israel) are occupying someone's land. You're seizing their home, throwing them out, bringing somebody (else) in and calling them 'settlers.' This is called theft," said Fidan on Oct. 17. Here, it is important to note that Israel’s illegal occupation and settlements have long been criticized by the international community, and yet they have continued. Also, Israel’s occupation, violence, oppression and dispossession in Palestinian territories did not begin on Oct. 7.
The shift in narrative is yet another significant moment that exposes the reality on the ground, and thus creates discomfort for Tel Aviv.
Thirdly, Ankara’s insistence and reiteration on establishing a free and sovereign Palestinian State through the two-state solution, based on the 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital, is a position that is confronted by Netanyahu’s War Cabinet.
Lastly, Erdoğan’s warning that Israel’s attacks and occupation will have a spillover effect, not just as a matter of regional clashes, but that Israel’s ultimate aim is to occupy more land in the region, also creates distress in Israel as many in Tel Aviv are motivated by controversial theological promises. That's why Erdoğan’s strong position against these aims and urgent call for unity against Israel’s ultimate game plan has created uneasiness in Israel.
