Japan used to be the very definition of political stability. For decades, the same party governed with near-unbroken dominance. Prime ministers came and went, but the machinery of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) guaranteed continuity. Japan’s allies saw Tokyo as a steady partner; its citizens, as much as they might grumble about politics, rarely worried about sudden changes at the top. In the postwar era, predictability was Japan’s hallmark.
That reputation has eroded. With the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba after only 11 months in office, Japan now faces the specter of returning to the “revolving door” politics of the 1990s and 2000s. Back then, prime ministers were replaced almost yearly and Japan struggled to project confidence at home or abroad. Ishiba’s fall follows the short tenures of Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida. The contrast with Shinzo Abe’s long and steady leadership from 2012 to 2020 could not be more striking. Abe’s years provided Japan with direction; since his departure, the country has drifted.
The leadership election scheduled for Oct. 4 is therefore not just another intraparty contest. It is a test of whether the LDP can recover its historic role as a guarantor of stability, or whether Japan will resign itself once again to fragile, short-lived governments.
Among the contenders, Sanae Takaichi, former interior minister and longtime protege of Abe, stands out. She has built her career on consistency: fiscal discipline, strong national defense, and a commitment to traditional values. In a political culture often dominated by factional maneuvering, she is respected for her clarity. She does not bend with the winds of popularity, nor does she indulge in empty slogans.
The yearning for stability is not abstract. It matters for markets, for households facing inflation and for Japan’s allies in a turbulent world. Takaichi represents a return to seriousness. She carries the credibility of Abe’s legacy, while also having carved out her own authority inside the party. Where others may seek office as a prize, she frames leadership as a duty. That distinction could make all the difference.
Japan’s challenges are daunting. Inflation and fiscal pressures weigh heavily, even as the country embarks on the most ambitious defense buildup in decades. The 56% rise in defense spending announced in 2022 must be funded responsibly, not through reckless borrowing or populist promises. Opposition parties speak the language of tax cuts and YouTube-friendly campaigns to attract young voters, but Japan cannot afford entertainment politics.
Takaichi offers something different: pragmatic conservatism. She has signaled a willingness to make hard economic choices while never compromising on national security. In a region shadowed by North Korea’s missiles and China’s assertiveness, that dual commitment is vital.
Leadership in Tokyo resonates across the globe. Japan is not just another G-7 economy; it is an anchor of the Indo-Pacific. Its reliability underpins the strategies of Washington, Canberra and European partners who look to Tokyo as a counterweight to instability. Allies know the difference between a leader who will last a season and one who can shape a decade. Takaichi inspires the latter kind of confidence. Her policies are well-understood, her alliances inside the LDP well-forged, and her image abroad is that of a serious stateswoman.
The LDP cannot afford another experiment in untested charisma or nostalgic names. Japan’s global role is too important and its domestic pressures too urgent. In a crowded field of capable but less convincing candidates – from Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi to Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi – Takaichi alone combines ideological coherence with governing experience.
This leadership election will determine whether Japan can finally end the cycle of fragile governments. Stability at home and credibility abroad are at stake. For decades, Japan was synonymous with predictability. It can be again, but only if the LDP chooses a leader who embodies conviction, discipline and responsibility.
At this crossroads, Sanae Takaichi is uniquely positioned to restore that sense of direction. She is not simply another candidate. She may well be the leader Japan needs most to end the revolving door once and for all.
