2022 has been a long and very busy year for Türkiye in terms of foreign policy. There have been many developments regarding bilateral relations, especially with the steps taken within the scope of normalization efforts. Türkiye has engaged in very positive relations with many countries and has focused on mending the wounds, which came out during the recent turbulent period in our region. The most recent and significant change in relations has been going on with Syria.
Any rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus would reshape the eight-year Syrian conflict.
Ankara has been against the brutality of the Syrian regime during the civil war and opened its borders for refugees seeking shelter and a safe haven. Millions of Syrians, children, women and the elderly among them, fled the civil war and escaped to Türkiye. Currently, the country hosts around 4 million Syrians. The official number is around 3.7 million but it is claimed to be a little higher than that.
However, with the extension of the instability in Syria, many factors have dominated the scene. There have been terrorist organizations in the field, Syria has not succeeded in bringing out a real opposition who could be an alternative to Syria’s Bashar Assad regime and the lack of relations between Ankara and Damascus has become an obstacle in the region for both of the countries.
Therefore, Russia’s attempt to initiate the first interaction is very important not only for Türkiye and Syria, but also for the whole Middle East.
In November, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signaled that ties with Syria could be improved and a similar path could be followed as in relations with Egypt.
Hence, it was no surprise when on Dec. 28, 2022, when National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and the head of Türkiye's National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Hakan Fidan, headed to Russia and had multiple meetings in the capital Moscow with Russian and Syrian Defense Ministers and the intelligence head of the Moscow regime.
Akar met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoygu and Syrian counterpart Ali Mahmoud Abbas, along with accompanying intelligence officials, to talk about "the Syrian crisis, the refugee issue and joint efforts to fight against all terrorist groups in Syria."
The meeting in Moscow was announced by the Turkish Defense Ministry as "constructive," and they agreed to continue "the format of trilateral meetings to ensure and maintain stability in Syria and the region as a whole."
Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşloğlu also said on Thursday that the second phase would be the meeting between foreign ministers. He added there is however no clear date yet for such a meeting and that January would be too early.
The meeting is also crucial as it is the first meeting between the Turkish and Syrian defense ministers since the start of the war in 2011. This meeting and possible future meetings show a clear shift in Turkish policy from positioning itself against the Assad regime to engaging with the current situation and trying to shape it according to its advantages. This meeting also made clear that Türkiye, Russia and Syria are going to carry out joint missions on the ground in Syria.
Mr. Akar added that it would be too early to talk about the details of a possible operation; however, the operations that are carried out together with Russia against the groups that Ankara considers terrorists can be done under a tripartite format in the near future.
Although it is the first step after 12 years of no contact, this meeting shows the beginning of a new era between Türkiye and Syria. It can change the whole dynamic if a positive atmosphere can be kept. However, the most difficult question to be answered will be the situation of the Syrian refugees in Türkiye whose number nears 4 million. There should be a joint and humane solution found for those people.
