Unexpected and severe tension has recently erupted between India and Pakistan.
The tension has escalated sharply following India's recent threat to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, a decades-old agreement brokered by the World Bank in 1960, to regulate shared river resources. This move comes amid heightened hostilities after a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based groups. Pakistan, in turn, has strongly condemned the move, viewing it as a provocation and a breach of international norms. The suspension adds a new dimension to the already strained relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, raising concerns in the region about the potential for further destabilization.
Although not as prominently recognized as other nuclear powers such as the United States, Russia, France, China and Israel, both Pakistan and India possess nuclear capabilities. Given this reality, whenever tensions flare between the two nations, the same pressing question arises: Could this escalate into a nuclear conflict? While both states frequently assert in official statements that they "will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in the world," the fear that any miscalculation could spiral into a devastating confrontation is always there.
Upon withdrawing from its colonies, the British Empire often left behind minefields, ensuring enduring conflicts between neighboring nations. A glance at the world map reveals a pattern: in regions once under British rule, borders were deliberately drawn to create contested territories, fueling perpetual disputes between nation-states.
Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim region, remains a focal point of conflict, with half of its territory under Indian occupation. The oppression faced by Kashmiris bears a striking resemblance to the Israeli policies in Palestine.
There are regions around the world where people are systematically oppressed, marginalized and subjected to human rights violations, like Kashmir and the Uyghur region. Yet, unlike Palestine, they might rarely command the same global media spotlight, partly because the oppressors lack the same international influence or the regions are not as geopolitically central.
The current India-Pakistan tension is not an isolated incident. The two nations have repeatedly teetered on the edge of war. Recently, attacks on Indian troops in Kashmir – claimed by an unknown terrorist group – have reignited hostilities. In such volatile moments, the involvement of covert operatives cannot be dismissed. State-sponsored terrorism, false-flag operations and intelligence agency manipulations are well-documented tactics in global power plays. However, no group has proven as effective at instigating large-scale violence between states as Daesh.
A critical question looms: Could there be some long-term strategic motives behind this escalation? The U.S., increasingly wary of China’s rise, has shifted its focus toward India – a nation of 1.5 billion, once overlooked but now a key ally in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Simultaneously, India has become an operational hub for Israel, which actively supports New Delhi’s nationalist government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Modi’s administration, marked by Hindu nationalism, has adopted increasingly aggressive policies against Muslims, mirroring Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. With influential Indian-origin figures in the Trump administration – including Cabinet members and advisors – some analysts suggest a "pro-India shadow" over U.S. policy. Notably, the U.S. intelligence chief has openly stated that America would side with India in the event of war.
Could the U.S. seek to provoke a regional war to weaken China in the region before confronting China in the long term?
Despite Pakistan’s smaller size and population, its military prowess ensures a credible deterrence against India. Both nations have now exchanged tit-for-tat measures, raising the stakes.
For centuries, Muslim dynasties – most notably the Timurid (Mughal) Empire – ruled the Indian subcontinent. The British, upon colonizing India, systematically dismantled Muslim political power, fostering Hindu nationalism to fracture unity. Today, the legacy of partition and engineered discord persists.
The current global order is a powder keg, with traditional alliances eroding and unpredictable conflicts emerging. The India-Pakistan confrontation could be a U.S.-backed maneuver to weaken China’s regional influence. Meanwhile, Israel’s fervent support for India reflects not just strategic alignment but also ideological hostility toward the Muslim world.
