The United States and Israel launched a comprehensive military attack against Iran on Feb. 28. The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and more than 40 other high-level Iranian officials were targeted and killed during this attack. In response, Iran has targeted Israeli targets and American military bases located in different Arab countries. As expected and feared, the conflict turned into a large-scale regional war involving 10 states. The U.S. and Israel have virtually set the region ablaze. The Gulf countries, in particular, some of the safest countries in the world, have been in great shock.
In this short piece, I will attempt to highlight some points to clarify the meaning of this attack and the positions of the actors involved.
First and foremost, this attack cannot be justified under any circumstances. According to established norms of international politics, this was an illegitimate act. The two aggressor states have attacked Iran during the holy month of mercy, Ramadan, when Muslims fast.
Innocent people were targeted. More than 100 schoolgirls were killed during the first day of the attacks. Although targeting a primary school is a grave violation of humanitarian law and a war crime, no state has taken any responsibility, and no state has even condemned the act. Therefore, it was an attack that deeply affected all Muslims worldwide.
The U.S. and Israel have violated a longtime tradition of international politics by targeting the head of state. No state can treat the leader of another state as a terrorist. If other countries were to implement this, it would cause great chaos in the world. This is a dangerous act.
The U.S. administration, which claimed that Iran was threatening the U.S. and its citizens, could not justify the attack. Everyone knows that Iran is unable to target the U.S. homeland, and it never made such a claim. Iran has indeed been under heavy sanctions imposed by the U.S. for the last four decades, and the two states do not have friendly relations. However, all these realities do not require the U.S. to target Iran.
Most Americans believe that this is not an American war. According to some polls conducted after the attacks, only about one-fourth of the American public supports the attack. If that’s the case, Trump’s plans have backfired, since he has carried out this attack to win the midterm elections that will be held next November, but it seems he will lose the elections because of it.
Another point is that Israel has been planning to hit Iran and to change its regime for years. The Israeli government has persuaded the U.S. administration to attack Tehran. However, it is questionable whether Israel has achieved its ultimate objective either. It seems that the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei contributed to the consolidation of the Iranian regime rather than weakening it.
In addition, the more aggressive Israel becomes, the more difficult it will be for it to consolidate its regional security. The Israeli government has been instrumentalizing all states for its expansionist regional projects. The world public opinion, including the vast majority of the Western population, has turned against it because of its aggressive and unjust policies. All of this eventually undermines Israel’s security.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Gulf countries were dragged into war by the U.S. and Israel, and there are two important points to be discussed about this.
On the one hand, this war is not theirs to fight. Therefore, although they are targeted by Iran, the Gulf states are hesitant to declare war against Iran. So far, they only tried to defend their territories.
On the other hand, the Gulf countries will pay a heavy price in the midterm. After being targeted by Iran, investors will hesitate to come to the Gulf. That is, the new conflict has severely damaged the image of the area. This conflict has once again demonstrated that the U.S. prioritizes the security of Israel over the security of the Gulf.
Lastly, this conflict has once again demonstrated how ineffective the EU and its member states are. EU officials and European countries did not criticize the American and Israeli attack against Iran. On the contrary, they have bandwagoned to the U.S and criticized the policies of the Iranian government. They no longer have any meaningful will or influence in international politics.
All in all, all states involved in the conflict will pay high prices. It will take a long time for the aggressor states and the attacked states to recover from the negative impacts of the conflict.
The oil and natural gas trade has been negatively affected. The closure of the Hormuz Strait led to a rise in oil prices, which will hurt the European countries the most.
Iran has weakened in the region. It will take a long time to recover from the losses it has suffered.
The U.S. and Israel have spent billions of dollars during these attacks, which damaged their comparative advantages vis-à-vis China and Russia. Eventually, they will fail to take control of Iran, and none will gain from this war.
