The passing of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi occurs amid heightened regional tensions spurred by Israel’s actions in Gaza. The impact of Raisi's demise in a helicopter crash on regional dynamics remains uncertain. Likewise, the question of the hardliner president’s successor lingers, although Mohammad Mokhber, the first vice president, assumes interim presidential duties. Elections are slated in 50 days per Iran’s Constitution.
"Iranian citizens need not worry," reassured Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader. Raisi has long been seen as a potential successor to Khamenei. Tehran downplays immediate regional ramifications, refraining from attributing the crash to foreign sabotage. However, while tensions between Iran and Israel may not escalate immediately, Raisi's death is not anticipated to alter Tehran's foreign policy on regional issues or interference in conflicts, regardless of the incoming president. Speculation abounds regarding potential domestic political motives behind the crash, given Iran's future leadership stakes. This is particularly a possibility given the heated race in who would replace Khamenei as supreme leader when the time comes and who would stand in leadership alongside as president.
The crash of the aging Bell 212 helicopter, carrying President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other officials in East Azerbaijan province, exposes Iran's aviation vulnerabilities. Despite military prowess showcased in prior actions against Israel, the use of outdated aircraft underscores Iran's aviation industry challenges. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif attributed the crash to unilateral U.S. sanctions.
Post-crash communication missteps fuel speculation and raise transparency concerns. Inconsistencies in statements and delayed search efforts highlight Iran's technological limitations. These incidents compound Iran's eroding domestic and international security prestige since Gen. Qassem Soleimani's 2020 killing and Israel's April attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. Critics decry Tehran's tepid responses and question its disaster management capabilities. Time will show whether the real causes of the crash will be shared with the public. In addition, the fact that it took some 15 hours to locate and reach the crash site, seeking help from other countries uncovered the limits of Iran’s technological capabilities.
Aside from many questions raised about the regime’s response to the crash and the country’s internal dynamics the capability of neighboring Türkiye in extending the helping hand for the search and rescue operations was lauded by many.
Türkiye's deployment of the Akıncı unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), a Baykar Technologies drone, proves instrumental in locating the crash site. Akıncı successfully located the crash site and returned to Türkiye after hours of flight time over the region. Hundreds of thousands followed Akıncı’s route during the operation live on websites such as flightradar24. Moreover, the images coming from Akıncı were also streamed immediately after they were taken by the Turkish public news agency, Anadolu Agency (AA), which has been carrying out a very successful mission in exposing the reality on the ground in Gaza.
In fact, AA’s images have been used as evidence as part of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel for its genocidal acts against Palestinians. In disaster management and communication transparency and using the digital tools effectively and timely minimizes the risk of spreading disinformation. Yet, whether Tehran passed this test of communication successfully is up for debate. However, they invited international media to the crash site once it was located. Here, it should be highlighted that the Turkish private broadcaster A Haber was the first to go live from the crash site and its successful coverage and footage was used by many international outlets.
The drone boasts two turboprop engines and has a maximum takeoff weight of 5,500 kilograms (12,125 pounds). It has a load capacity of 1,350 kilograms. Akıncı, which made Türkiye one of the three countries capable of producing this drone class, can also be used in air-to-air combat. It is important to note that, while Akıncı’s participation in the search efforts showed the positive effects of Türkiye’s booming defense industry, particularly in drone technologies, it also showed that these technologies are not solely for combat purposes. Akıncı, which can fly for up to 24 hours and has a maximum altitude of 40,000 feet, was first used in counterterrorism operations in northern Iraq. However, it was also used as part of the search and rescue operations previously during the deadly February 2023 earthquake in southeastern Türkiye and during the forest fires the country has suffered from during the heatwaves in previous years.
Türkiye's utilization of Akıncı underscores the multifaceted nature of modern defense technologies. While enhancing military capabilities, Türkiye leverages drones for humanitarian and disaster relief operations, showcasing its diplomatic and soft power initiatives.
For international actors who would like to strengthen their influence in their regions or beyond, while it is important to have military might and deterrence capability, it is as important to have the capacity to interfere for peaceful purposes to have a prestige power internationally. From development aid contributions in the Balkans to Africa to diplomatic mediation in conflicts as in the Ukraine-Russia war, from humanitarian interferences to military engagement in conflict zones as in Syria, Libya or South Caucasus, Türkiye has been supporting an active foreign policy that has elevated its vision and prestige to beyond a mere middle power country.
