Russia’s war against Ukraine began last year when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on television early on Feb. 24, 2022, that they had launched a “special military operation on Ukraine.”
A year has passed since then, and Russia still controls parts of eastern Ukraine.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether there is any hope for a ceasefire and lasting peace shortly. In his war anniversary speech, Putin addressed this issue, sending a clear message. The Russian leader asserted that despite their challenges, his country remains resolute in its stance. Putin also emphasized that Russia is not merely fighting against Ukraine but rather against the unipolar world order imposed by the United States and its Western allies.
“We are determined,” he declared.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian front is under the influence of U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent visit to Ukraine on the war anniversary.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that he had no interest in further negotiations, as he had attempted to negotiate with Putin before the outbreak of the war and yet received no response from the Russian leader at that time.
That is accurate. On the second day of the war, Zelenskyy expressed his will to negotiate with Moscow on the condition that Ukraine abandons its goal of joining NATO and instead gain the status of a “permanent neutral state,” akin to Switzerland. However, Russia did not respond to the offer at the time, nor in the period leading up to the war.
Although Ukrainian political commentators say that this stance of the Kremlin pushes their country towards the U.S., it is clear that Putin has valid reasons for distrusting the Zelenskyy administration.
But later, Ukraine’s confidence grew as Russia experienced a series of setbacks. Furthermore, the U.S. and the United Kingdom raised the expectations of Ukraine, suggesting that Russia’s defeat was imminent, which altered the dynamics. As a result, those previously discussed negotiations were now met with reactions such as, “Do you not want Ukraine to win?”
Currently, Türkiye is hopeful that negotiations centered on pressing issues, such as the grain corridor and prisoner exchange, will pave the way for broader discussions. In contrast, Ukraine is willing to negotiate only on the most urgent issues, refusing to engage in ceasefire negotiations. Despite these efforts, it is apparent that the minimum conditions for a ceasefire have yet to be met.
Given this state of affairs, the question arises about how long both sides can sustain the current situation.
By skillfully playing the energy card, Putin has successfully neutralized embargoes, maintained his hold on power, and has his people’s support. He has even managed to appease countries like Germany and France, which were hesitant to sever trade relations with Russia. With this level of support, he can continue to lead as long as he wants.
In contrast, the Zelenskyy administration struggled to govern a country paralyzed by war. Ukrainians know that the U.S. cannot afford to engage in a conflict with Russia, which frequently reminds the world of its nuclear capabilities. This realization has made it difficult for the administration to maintain its motivation in the face of such a formidable adversary.
Zelenskyy’s only chance for a dignified exit from the conflict seems to rest on the outcome of the following year’s U.S. elections. If Trump, who has expressed his disapproval of Biden’s handling of the situation and claimed that this war would not have occurred during his presidency, runs for the presidency and defeats Biden, who fueled Ukraine for NATO membership and then left it indecisive, there may be an odd in favor of Zelenskyy.
Notably, Putin sees Trump as a more rational actor than Biden. Considering that Trump was the only U.S. President who managed not to start a war during his tenure and tried to close cross-border bases, he is not wrong.
