President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Turkmenistan to attend the “International Year of Peace and Trust” proclaimed by the United Nations and co-sponsored by Türkiye, and attended the 30th anniversary celebrations of the declaration of Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality. He discussed the regional crises and peace initiatives with his counterparts on the sidelines of the event.
On his return to Ankara, Erdoğan made important statements regarding the war in Ukraine that were noteworthy. He said that “peace is not far away,” adding, “We believe the war should have ended long ago. All we need to do is turn our direction toward where peace lies.”
In addition, he underlined that “the Black Sea should not be viewed as an arena of confrontation.” He pointed out that targeting the commercial vessels in the Black Sea would harm both countries as well as other coastal states. He also called both sides to ensure that the vessels would not be targeted.
In order to end the war, Erdoğan has been in contact with all related leaders. Erdoğan, who met with President Vladimir Putin in Ashgabat, said that Türkiye encourages the United States government to get involved in the Ukrainian issue and mediate between the two sides. He has been attempting to mediate between the two warring parties since the conflict began.
It is clear that both Ukraine and Russia have been suffering from the war. The war is no longer sustainable for either side. It seems that the light at the end of the tunnel began to appear. However, at this point, we have to ask the question, whose peace will be brought to Ukraine? Ukraine’s or Russia’s; Putin’s or Zelenskyy’s?
The two main actors that negotiate the peace in Ukraine are the United States and the Russian Federation. On the one hand, the U.S. cannot continue the mobilization of its resources to compensate for the war in Ukraine and has begun to adopt a different stance from that of European countries.
From the very beginning, many observers and academicians have thought that the main reason for the Russian invasion was NATO’s attempt to enlarge eastward. The U.S., together with other Western countries, has been trying to integrate Ukraine with the Western world. However, Russia considered this move a red line and opposed the Western attempts. To prevent Ukrainian integration with the West, Russia invaded the country as a precautionary measure.
According to the proposal prepared by the U.S., Ukraine is forced to accept a permanent neutrality position. The U.S. proposes that neither NATO nor the European Union will seek Ukrainian membership anymore.
However, the EU countries now face a difficult situation. They do not want to leave Ukraine to its own fate. They think that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it will surely try to expand even further and try to occupy some other European countries. Therefore, they try to revise U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal in favor of Ukraine. Then, they also aim to maximize the interests of the European countries rather than those of Kyiv. Although there are more overlaps between the European and Ukrainian perspectives of the war, they lack the power to challenge the Russian threat. Therefore, the effects of their interventions will be limited.
On the other hand, Russia, as one of the sides of the war, still controls a large part of Ukraine, namely the Crimean Peninsula and Eastern Ukraine. It is impossible to return to the prewar status quo. Putin will not accept any solution that does not compensate for the Russian casualties of the war. To be able to give a reasonable answer to the Russian people, he will not relinquish the occupied territories.
If Russia reaches an agreement with the U.S., the situation on the ground will develop differently. In this case, Russia will probably turn inward to strengthen its economic and military power. Without consolidating the domestic front, it is quite difficult for Russia to follow an ambitious foreign policy. Russia could quickly recover its losses after relations with the U.S. normalize and anti-Russian sanctions are lifted.
In case the war ends, Ukraine will face many difficulties. It will take time for Kyiv to recover from the effects of the war. First of all, it has to hold elections soon after the war ends. Who will be elected by the Ukrainian people, a pro-Western, a pro-Russian, or a neutral politician? Which country will become effective in the elections?
Probably, both Western countries and Russia will continue to intervene in the domestic affairs of the country, as they have been doing since the early 2000s. Each side will support competing candidates. In other words, the politics of the state will continue to remain divided between pro-Westerners and pro-Russians. One may claim that the Russian influence may diminish after the war. Considering the historical ties between the two nations and states, it may not come true. At least, the strengthened Ukrainian nationalism in the post-occupation period may prevent the country from having alliance relations with the West.
All in all, the Ukrainian state fell victim to the rivalry between the West and Russia. Under changed conditions, both sides may change their politics and therefore positions toward the war. The most important thing that will remain unchanged is the lasting wounds inflicted by the war on both peoples, especially the Ukrainian people, millions of whom have been displaced and hundreds of thousands killed.
