The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in the third week of June to end the war in the Middle East. The agreement, which was brokered by Pakistan with a facilitator role of Türkiye, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, was a 14-point framework agreement. It aimed to end military strikes, provide reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and extend the already declared cease-fire for two months.
According to the articles of the agreement, the U.S. would lift embargoes against Iran, provide around $300 billion in funding for the recovery of the Iranian state, and release the frozen Iranian assets. Furthermore, Iran would be able to export crude oil to restore its revenue stream. Major issues such as Iran’s nuclear program, its uranium enrichment, ballistic missile program and the status of the Iranian proxies in the region were not covered in the agreement.
However, it seems that the cease-fire period has ended, and the two sides nowadays are now preparing for a prolonged confrontation. There have been some significant developments that have led both the U.S. and Iran to act ambiguously. Aims and strategies of the warring sides have changed. There are several important reasons why the two sides are hesitant to return to a large-scale war and to reach a final agreement.
One of the main reasons for the continuation of the war is the personality of U.S. President Donald Trump and his severely inconsistent statements and decisions. Not only in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war but also in many domestic and foreign issues, Trump changes his stance quite often. He praises the Iranian leadership one day and demonizes it another. Sometimes he claims that he will end the war, then claims that it is not America's war or that the U.S. will not continue the war.
Many factors further exacerbate Trump’s ambivalent perspective. The U.S. will hold midterm elections in the next week of November. Therefore, he is stuck between the international community and domestic political realities. A large majority of the American public has expressed its perspective on “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) and claims that it has turned into “Make Israel Great Again” (MIGA). As a result, he wants to continue the U.S.' war against Iran to secure support for the midterm elections.
The Israeli factor is one of the main determinants of the war in the Middle East. To start with, Israel prefers a hot war over a cold peace. On the other hand, Israeli tutelage over the U.S. continues to play an effective role. Israel is still able to shape, design and control American domestic politics. It wants to achieve its goals through the use of violence.
On the other hand, the resilience of the Iranian state and society plays an important role in the Iran-U.S. war. The more prolonged the war becomes, the more the vulnerability of the U.S. rises. The cost of the war increases every other day for the U.S. In addition, both the Russian and Chinese stances may change at any time if the war continues. Furthermore, recently, the leadership in Iran has also begun to be questioned.
Finally, regional and global dynamics must be taken into consideration. The whole world has been directly or indirectly influenced by the war, and no one wants the U.S. to return to full-scale aggression. Regional countries such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Qatar do not want the U.S. to raise tensions in the region. Especially the Gulf countries, which have been suffering the greatest losses, do not want further confrontation. Similarly, global powers such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany do not want the U.S. to re-escalate the war, as they pay high costs for American unilateral moves.
It seems that it will not be easy to end the war in the Middle East. There will be no lasting peace, mainly due to the above-mentioned factors. No state has won the war. Therefore, neither the U.S., nor Israel and Iran want the war to end.
Maybe in the beginning it was not an American war, but finally, it has become theirs. It was Israel that initiated the war with Iran, but it is the U.S. that has really continued it. So much so that the U.S. has been acting like a proxy actor for the Israeli government. And as long as Israel has a say in decision-making processes in the U.S., it will continue to influence its domestic and foreign policies as well.
