Unlike previous technological disruptions, artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly entering all areas of life and causing significant transformations wherever it is adopted. In particular, the development and accessibility of generative AI have led to this transformation taking on a radical dimension. As a result, countries have begun to focus on the economic opportunities that generative AI may offer and the potential impacts it could have on employment within labor markets.
In this context, the report titled "The Economic Potential of Artificial Intelligence in Türkiye," prepared by professor Altan Çakır with the support of Google and Implement Consulting and published in May 2024, provides highly significant projections regarding AI's possible contributions to the Turkish economy and its impacts on the labor market. The report’s central projection is that, if the opportunities presented by generative AI can be effectively leveraged, it could contribute an additional 5% – approximately $50 billion to $60 billion (TL 1.92 trillion to TL 2.31 trillion) – to Türkiye’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) within the next decade. This additional economic contribution is expected to result from increased worker productivity enabled by this technology, the expansion of unallocated time and the reallocation of that time to other value-added activities.
On the other hand, the report estimates that 41% of the current 31 million job positions in Türkiye (approximately 13 million jobs) will not be exposed to automation, while 55% (around 17 million jobs) will benefit from the contributions of generative AI. For the remaining 4% (roughly 1 million jobs), partial or complete job transformation is expected. Accordingly, it is projected that generative AI technologies will impact 59% of job positions. As noted above, this impact is expected to take place across three dimensions. In 55% of positions – 70% of which are in the service sector – worker productivity is expected to increase. The 4% involving partial or complete job transformation will emerge through newly created roles, resulting from the reallocation of time freed up in the 55% segment to other value-added activities. Thus, no net loss in employment is anticipated.
The report emphasizes three key regulatory measures necessary for the anticipated economic benefits and employment impacts of generative AI technologies to materialize as projected: reskilling and upskilling the workforce, increasing R&D activities by local innovative actors and accelerating commercial innovation efforts.
The preparation of such a comprehensive report on the potential impacts of AI technologies on Türkiye's economy and labor markets is highly significant. However, there is a growing need for even more detailed and extensive reports in this area. This is because international discussions and findings concerning the economic and labor market effects of AI technologies are becoming increasingly pessimistic.
In previous major technological transformations, the jobs eliminated were, to some extent, balanced by the creation of new positions. Yet, recent studies warn that this may not be the case with AI technologies. Either the number of newly created jobs will not be sufficient to compensate for those lost, or the newly created jobs themselves will be rapidly taken over by exponentially advancing AI systems, or both outcomes may occur simultaneously. Therefore, more comprehensive and forward-looking preparations are urgently needed.
As highlighted in the report, the impact of generative AI technologies on worker productivity is significantly higher for low- and medium-skilled groups than for high-skilled groups. In other words, if adopted appropriately, this technology can rapidly enhance the productivity of low- and medium-skilled workers, thereby increasing overall efficiency and output. The phrase “if adopted” is emphasized here to indicate that this outcome depends on the choices made by employers. Unfortunately, the global trend does not appear to be moving in this direction. Employers often prefer to use this technology to reduce the number of employees, thereby increasing profits. In other words, the prevailing tendency favors automation, often at the expense of employment, rather than using AI to augment human labor and improve the productivity of low- and medium-skilled workers. Moreover, as employment declines, union activities related to labor rights are also increasingly undermined.
In short, if the process is left to unfold on its own, there is a risk that the automation pathway will become further entrenched. Therefore, in the projected 55% of job positions where productivity gains are expected due to automation, as stated in the report, this issue must be carefully considered. Another important point is the need to pay attention to potential wage reductions from partial or complete job transitions within the 4% of positions identified in the report. This is because, in cases of job transitions, workers are often forced to shift to lower-skilled – and thus lower-paid – positions.
The report notes that, between 2008 and 2021, an average of 5.2 million new jobs were created annually in Türkiye, while approximately 5 million jobs were closed each year. This indicates that, in terms of job positions, Türkiye maintains a relatively balanced labor market. However, the report also states that as of 2023, only 19% of large companies and just 5% of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) had implemented AI technologies. Therefore, the real impact of AI is expected to unfold in the coming period. In this regard, for the optimistic projections outlined in the report to materialize, it is essential to take meaningful steps to strengthen the skills of workers in the labor market.
The first step is to organize continuous training programs – particularly for low- and medium-skilled workers – to strengthen their resilience in the labor market by enhancing their skills related to AI technologies. In this context, the continuing education centers of higher education institutions and the in-service training units within businesses should be made significantly more active.
The recent introduction of higher education programs focused on artificial intelligence (AI) is a significant step. However, considering the massive wave of AI integration, this is insufficient. Therefore, as a second step, all higher education programs should include courses designed to enhance AI literacy, with content tailored to the specific needs of each field of study. Additionally, training programs aimed at improving the AI literacy of all academics in higher education and teachers should be implemented rapidly and repeated at regular intervals. As noted in the report, 55% of job positions expected to be affected by automation are predominantly white-collar occupations. If this step is not taken, the strengthening of the automation pathway will increase the risk of job loss among white-collar workers, and newly emerging positions are likely to shift toward lower-skilled (and thus lower-paid) roles.
Forty-four percent of job positions identified in the report as unlikely to be affected by AI likely correspond to areas within the scope of vocational education. Vocational education offers a more resilient career path against the impacts of AI. In this context, the steps taken in recent years to strengthen vocational education in Türkiye have provided a significant advantage. Enhancing this advantage presents a valuable opportunity to reduce youth unemployment in the labor market and to facilitate the school-to-work transition. Therefore, as the third step, efforts to strengthen vocational education should be continued, and the focus should be placed on equipping students in vocational education with artificial intelligence skills, as these programs allow time for acquiring new competencies.
Finally, despite all these steps, unforeseen contractions may still occur in the fields in which individuals have received their education. Therefore, "skills development and updating support platforms" should be established – offering short-term training programs that enable skill transfer and are recognized by the labor market. Through such platforms, graduates will be able to redirect themselves toward fields with employment opportunities by acquiring new skills in a short time, thereby gaining access to new opportunities in the face of unemployment. In light of the rapid changes that AI is bringing – and will continue to bring – to skill sets, lifelong learning is no longer a choice but a necessity.
