Germany entered the 2020s grappling with both domestic political turbulence and a series of external crises beyond its control. The decade began with the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing Germany to confront an unprecedented public health crisis. Just as the country was struggling to recover from the economic fallout of the pandemic, it found itself entangled in another crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Already weakened by the pandemic, Germany’s economy suffered another major blow due to the ensuing energy crisis and the sharp surge in energy prices.
Most recently, the election of Donald Trump as the U.S. president in November 2024 marked yet another turning point for Germany. On the morning after the election, the "traffic light" coalition collapsed, signaling a shift in the country’s political landscape. For the third time in its modern history, Germany faced the prospect of early elections. With the Free Democratic Party (FDP) withdrawing from the coalition, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD)-led government was reduced to a minority government. As anticipated, Scholz’s administration lost a confidence vote on Dec. 16. Shortly thereafter, on Dec. 20, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced the dissolution of the Bundestag and scheduled snap elections for Feb. 23, 2025.
Since Dec. 20, when it became clear that Germany would head to early elections, the country has been shaken by a series of consecutive terrorist attacks. On Feb. 23, Germany held a crucial election amid this tense atmosphere. Perhaps the most striking aspect of the results was how closely they aligned with preelection polls. As expected, the CDU/CSU alliance emerged as the leading political force, securing 28.5% of the vote. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) confirmed its rise by doubling its previous vote share, reaching 20.8%, and solidifying its position as the second-largest party.
One of the most dramatic shifts in the election was the decline of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Once one of Germany’s two dominant parties and the leader of the outgoing government, the SPD suffered a nearly 10-point drop from the previous election, finishing in third place with 16.4% of the vote. The Greens, as expected, also experienced a setback, losing three percentage points and settling at 11.6%.
One of the biggest surprises of the election, apart from the AfD’s success, was the resurgence of Die Linke. Once considered a party in decline and struggling to cross the 5% electoral threshold, Die Linke made a strong comeback, largely thanks to young voters, finishing with 8.8% of the vote and securing fifth place.
In contrast, the FDP, which was the first party to withdraw from the Traffic Light coalition, suffered a devastating defeat. Its vote share plummeted by nearly eight percentage points, leaving it at 4.3%, well below the electoral threshold.
Finally, one of the most closely watched elements of this election was the performance of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a new party that gained significant traction, particularly in Eastern Germany. In its first-ever federal election, BSW narrowly missed the 5% threshold, securing 4.97% – falling short by just 15,000 votes. The party has already announced that it will legally contest the results.
The failure of FDP and BSW to cross the 5% threshold was not just a matter of individual party performance; it significantly impacted the entire coalition landscape. Had either party reached the threshold, it would have prevented the formation of a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition.
In such a scenario, CDU/CSU would have been left with two controversial choices: either ally with AfD, breaking Germany’s long-standing political firewall (Brandmauer) against far-right collaboration, or SPD would have had to construct a complex coalition involving the Greens, Die Linke, BSW, or FDP. Given that no party in Germany has thus far cooperated with AfD – not even on legislative matters – it is clear how critical BSW’s near miss was.
Had BSW surpassed the threshold, Germany could have faced a coalition crisis similar to Austria’s, with months of deadlock before a government could be formed. The election results have now paved the way for more straightforward coalition talks, but the broader political realignment is undeniable.
From a broader perspective, the most striking outcome of Germany’s recent elections is undoubtedly the decline of centrist parties and the simultaneous rise of political extremes on both the right and left. While the CDU/CSU alliance emerged victorious, it is important to note that this was the second-worst result in its history following the 2021 elections. Meanwhile, the SPD, historically one of the two pillars of Germany’s grand coalition system, recorded its worst-ever performance in modern German electoral history.
On the other hand, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its vote share, securing second place nationwide. The leftist Die Linke party experienced a resurgence, particularly among young voters, with an impressive 25% support among first-time voters, easily surpassing the electoral threshold. Meanwhile, the left-populist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), contesting its first election, fell just 15,000 votes short of the 5% threshold, ending with 4.97% – a result some consider highly controversial.
Another critical takeaway from the election results is the sharp divide between East and West Germany. In some districts of East Germany, AfD secured up to 40% of the vote, making it the dominant political force in the region. This stark contrast between the East and West serves as a clear indicator that structural and ideological divisions remain entrenched, even decades after reunification. Notably, after Die Linke, the AfD was the second most popular party among young voters, highlighting a dramatic shift in generational voting trends.
The Feb. 23, 2025, election could be Germany’s last off-ramp before a deeper political crisis. As coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD begin, their ability to form a stable and effective government will be crucial. If they fail to address the country’s ongoing recession, the energy and security crisis fueled by the Ukraine-Russia war, the deterioration of U.S.-Europe relations under a second Trump administration, and the ever-controversial migration issue, Germany may face another election. However, in such a scenario, the entire party system could be thrown into turmoil, with centrist forces weakened further and extremist and populist parties – both on the right and the left – cementing their dominance in German politics.
