The process that began with the withdrawal of the Free Democratic Party (FDP) from the coalition, causing the collapse of the "traffic light" government, and later led to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's failure to secure a vote of confidence in Parliament, has brought Germany to early elections on Feb. 23, 2025. The economic crisis, rising energy costs following the Russia-Ukraine war, domestic political challenges and global conditions have all played crucial roles in bringing Germany to this point.
Polls indicate that in the upcoming elections, the Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) candidate, Friedrich Merz, is set to lead with a share of 27%-30%, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to lose support, with 15%-18% of the votes. The far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is predicted to garner 19%-22% of the vote, is likely to become the main opposition party. This possible development is significant enough to potentially break a longstanding taboo in German politics.
Historically, following the devastation caused by World War II, mainstream German parties have maintained a "security wall" approach toward the far-right movements. However, the following questions should no longer be dismissed lightly: How can a far-right party representing the main opposition be ignored? Could these elections mark the collapse of Germany's historical resistance against the far-right? Could the recent passage of a migration bill in the Bundestag, submitted by the CDU and supported by the AfD, be a signal of possible future federal-level cooperation between these two parties?
These difficult questions indicate that the election will be a turning point for Germany and the broader European context. The outcome of the elections will likely enable the AfD to assert greater dominance in political discourse. In a country where a radical right-wing party could potentially become the main opposition, it is foreseeable that the Turkish community in Germany may face challenging days ahead. In particular, the possibility of Merz forming a minority government with AfD support is the most alarming scenario for the Turkish diaspora.
An estimated 1 million people of Turkish descent are expected to vote in these elections. It is generally believed that the Turkish community in Germany tends to support the SPD, due to the party's advocacy for workers' rights and more moderate approaches to immigrants. However, in these elections, Turkish voters appear to be more divided and uncertain. It is difficult to point to a dominant preference, as no party has shown a particular commitment to addressing the rights or problems of the Turkish people. However, while Turkish voters may be undecided on whom to vote for, they are clear on one thing: They will not vote for the AfD.
Since its founding in 2013, the AfD has grown rapidly, initially driven by economic and anti-EU motives. Over time, however, the party has increasingly embraced anti-immigrant and Islamophobic rhetoric. Having started with an electoral share of around 4%, it is now predicted to garner 18%-21% of the vote in the upcoming elections. The party’s members facing prosecution for Nazi sympathies, its racist and populist rhetoric, and election promises, are sufficient to understand its political stance.
The AfD aims to appeal to those dissatisfied with the migration crisis, the EU's Russian politics and the economic situation. The party’s program explicitly envisions a society where assimilation is prioritized, rejecting multiculturalism and advocating for a homogeneous German national culture (Deutsche Leitkultur). The program also prominently features an anti-Muslim approach, with slogans such as "Islam does not belong to Germany" and proposals to ban headscarves in public spaces and schools. Furthermore, the party rejects the dual citizenship law granted by the current government. The party program also states opposition to Türkiye's EU membership. All of this is quite concerning for the Turkish diaspora, which lies at the intersection of anti-Islam and anti-Türkiye sentiments.
Such rhetoric and attitudes have historically existed in Germany, but this time the situation is more serious for two main reasons. First, the far-right has increasingly become a mainstream force in European politics, with far-right parties now emerging as the dominant political forces in countries like France and Austria, and even the forming government in Italy. This shift signifies that we are no longer dealing with marginal groups, but large political entities that are shaping mainstream politics and gaining significant public support. Second, these far-right movements are no longer just local phenomena; they are now globally connected and receive support from major international actors like U.S. President Donald Trump. Another example of this is Elon Musk, who took office as a minister in the U.S., openly declaring his support for the AfD.
In Germany, political parties are moving rightward in an attempt to balance the rising far-right, a trend that is also reflected in the society. According to statistics from the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, in 2023, more than 25,000 far-right crimes were committed, and there are approximately 14,500 far-right extremists prone to violence. Furthermore, 1,464 anti-Muslim racist incidents were reported to the police in 2023, along with 81 attacks on mosques. In response to a parliamentary inquiry, the Federal Assembly reported that 1,554 violent acts against Muslims were committed in 2024, a figure that had tripled compared to 2022. When these actions are coupled with unreported acts of violence, the extent of the danger becomes evident.
For the Turkish diaspora, which already struggles with issues of exclusion and prejudice, the rise of far-right ideologies that fuel these biases is a deeply worrying development. It is, of course, disappointing to be seen as a threat and become a target of the far-right in Germany, a country they helped rebuild alongside the Germans since the 1960s. However, they want to believe that common sense will prevail in the country which is still paying the price for its racist historical legacy after World War II.
