Following the elimination of all Hezbollah leaders by Israel, Iran bombarded Israeli military facilities with missiles on the evening of Oct. 1, while Hezbollah finally declared war on the Israeli state. The footage of the barrage of around 200 Iranian missiles was impressive for Iran while horrible for the Israeli side since the renowned Iron Dome could not shoot them down. Israel, acting as if it did not set the region on fire, is now expected to retaliate against Iran. Israeli officials overtly state they will target Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. Certainly, Israeli attacks will not skip Iranian civilians as they deliberately target ordinary people.
As always, the U.S. and other Western states are expected to back Israel’s illegal attacks by supplying weapons and using a pro-Israeli discourse, claiming that Israel has the right to defend itself. We all know that for Western supporters of Israel, only the Israeli state has the right to attack and defend itself, while its foes should not resist and welcome being massacred and occupied by the colonial Israeli state. It is not a just policy but they are not just, either. Thus, in case Israel counterattacks Iran, none of them will say that Iran has the right to defend itself.
However, even if Israel attempts revenge, there is the possibility that Americans, despite sending weapons like THAAD missiles to Israel, might use incentives to bring Iran to their terms. The U.S. administration is known for being pragmatist in its foreign policy. It does not hesitate to crush its enemies or support its allies like Israel but if it sees that enmity is not sustainable and the enemy still survives to counter, it switches to developing good relations with it. Remember how the U.S. left Vietnam and Afghanistan after long years of invasion?
Therefore, it will not be surprising if Washington is already in contact with Tehran and negotiating for an entente between Israel and Iran. Despite using threatening language and having so many armed proxy groups in the region, the Tehran regime has never convinced anyone, including its citizens, that it aims to erase Israel from the map. Iran’s priority has never been Israel and, as can be seen from the latest missile barrage, it avoids hurting Israelis (there were no Israeli casualties while an Iranian missile killed a Palestinian in the latest attack).
One reason might be that it does not want to escalate tensions with Israel for the sake of Palestinians, and even Hezbollah. Another reason might be there is a veiled agreement or understanding of not confronting each other due to armed groups. However, given that Israel has assassinated so many Iranian nuclear scientists as well as Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, this probability looks weak. Yet, for sure Iran does not want to mess with Israel and whatever it does for punishing Israel is just for face-saving purposes.
Perhaps it will be hard to prove but it will not be shocking if America is already sorting out a permanent cease-fire between the two. Such mediations coupled with incentives are not new for American diplomacy. We know from the past that while Egypt withdrew its support to the Palestinian cause with the Camp David Accords, the Jordan-Israel peace treaty signed in 1994 pulled Jordan from the stage. Additionally, we should recall that the Abraham Accords signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel and Bahrain were a product of American diplomacy. An accord between Iran and Israel is also possible since Iran is not even an Arab country and never accepts to sacrifice its resources for Sunni people, with whom it has been in conflict since the Iranian revolution.
Of course, this is just a prediction and developments may be the other way around. The two enemies might go for an existential war and give each other catastrophic damage. However, the American mindset does not always act with sharp-edged ideas, thus an unprecedented solution surprising everyone will not be unexpected. Whether the American administration is working on such a “looking non-possible solution” will soon be understood. If it comes true, Iran will also be tamed but the Middle East will still be a battlefield as Israel’s cruelty continues.
