If Afghanistan had not been a victim of a decadeslong external and civil war, by now it would have become a leading economic player through the prudent use of its natural resources. Several scientific reports and surveys have suggested that the value of Afghanistan's natural resources could be anything between $1 trillion and $3 trillion. Germany and the United Kingdom conducted many surveys back in the 19th and early 20th century, and then the USSR conducted a geological survey of Afghanistan in the 1960s, which is considered a far more systematic and scientific survey. Professor John F. Shroder of the University of Nebraska also conducted extensive research and published his three-decade study in 2014 that identified accurate locations on maps and provided scientific evidence of these resources. The Ashraf Ghani-led Afghan government then published the first-ever government policy paper to tap into these resources. With the Taliban in power, the future of Afghanistan's natural resources once again is faced with uncertainty and delay.
Afghanistan's natural resources are not only massive in quantity but some of them are very rare and important for a high technology-led global economy. Afghanistan has a massive amount of iron ore, perhaps the fourth-largest reserves in the world. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Afghan Geological Survey (AGS), the iron and copper reserves alone may be worth $700 billion. Afghanistan has the second-largest lithium reserves after Bolivia, to the extent that some experts call Afghanistan the Saudi Arabia of lithium. As lithium is an essential component for mobile batteries, and the coming electric automobile revolution will largely rely on lithium, the global economy is set to enter its "lithium era."
Afghanistan also has significant reserves of gold, oil, natural gas, uranium, bauxite, coal, rare earth, chromium, lead, zinc, gemstones, talc sulfur, travertine, gypsum and marble. All plans and opportunities to extract these resources were lost in the decadeslong wars and political instability. The Ghani government once presented a policy document to extract these resources. According to this document, the government had tried to create an online database. It divided these resources into sectors, subsectors and interests like construction material, industrial minerals and precious metals. The government provides a legal framework to exploit these resources. The document suggested a new ministry, the Ministry of Mining and Petroleum.
However, given the colossal corruption, continued violence and geographically landlocked nature of the country, the Ghani government failed in its plans. In 2017, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) published a special report on how these resources were being looted at the industrial level. After the withdrawal of the U.S.-led NATO force from Afghanistan, the Ghani government fell like a house of cards. Now the Taliban government is in discussions with key stakeholders to develop these resources. Though they have not presented a vision document so far, the Taliban leaders are inviting companies to develop Afghanistan's natural resources.
As a land-locked country, Afghanistan depends on its neighbors, mainly Pakistan and Iran, to become an export economy. For many reasons, Pakistan remained the most convenient country for most of its trade and import. However, Pakistan lacks the necessary resources and technology to help the Taliban government extract natural resources. China has established itself as an undisputed leader in rare earth elements. According to American geoscience, even in 1993, China was No. 1 with 38% of rare earth element production while the U.S. remained second to China with 33% production globally. The Australian share was 12% in the same period, whereas India and Malaysia accounted for 5% each. After nearly two decades, in 2011, China controls 97% of the global production of rare earth elements. China looks to Afghanistan as a guarantee for all earth material demands and to dominate the global market. China is the biggest investor in Afghanistan's mining industry. In 2007, China and the Afghan government signed a 30-year contract worth $2.9 billion to develop the Mes Aynak copper deposit. China is already working on a 400-megawatt coal power plant and a railway track to Pakistan. China can rescue the Taliban government from the imminent collapse of a cash-deprived economy. The Taliban leadership is using natural resources as a bargaining chip for international recognition. Interestingly, some of the most valuable resources like lithium, copper, gold and cesium are located near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Nevertheless, Pakistan lacks the financial and technological capacity and industrial base to develop and exploit these resources. China's mega transport and connectivity projects in Pakistan aim to use Pakistani territory to enable the massive transfer of raw materials, without helping the local Afghan or Pakistani industries.
The Taliban government looks at India more favorably as India has both the financial and technological capacity to help Afghanistan's mining industry and economy. To enable India to invest in Afghanistan, the Taliban government needs to speak with Iran for connectivity. The Taliban government is in a tight competition between an aggressive Chinese economy and its resource- and capability-deprived neighbors. That is why the Taliban are opening every possible communication channel with Western and Middle Eastern countries. The Taliban's desperation for international recognition is also designed to avoid being dependent on China. Turkey, along with Qatar and other Gulf countries, have been approached by the Taliban. These countries have the technological and financial capacity to invest in Afghanistan's natural resources. If a consortium comprising of key Muslim countries, India and other European countries emerges, the Taliban will have an incentive to moderate their politics and be more inclusive in their governance and society. In extreme conditions, the Taliban may impose a ban on the export of lithium as a raw material and would ask investors to export lithium-based products to generate jobs for Afghan citizens. For the Taliban, any investment in Afghanistan's natural resources that does not generate jobs will be politically unsustainable and a potential source of unrest against their newly established regime.
