Israel’s expansionist policies are deepening regional instability, undermining prospects for a two-state solution and increasing security risks for neighboring countries, according to a report released by Türkiye’s National Intelligence Academy (MIA) on Friday.
Titled “The Anatomy of Israeli Expansionism,” the report examines the historical, ideological, political and military roots of Israel’s policies, the role of U.S. support and the potential risks for Türkiye.
In the report’s foreword, academy President Talha Köse said Israel’s actions in Gaza reaching the level of genocide, its occupation of the West Bank and its expansionist policies in Lebanon and Syria were contributing to global instability.
Köse said Israel’s push for territorial expansion, from Syria to the Eastern Mediterranean and from the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa, was undermining prospects for a two-state solution, which he described as "essential to lasting regional peace."
He contrasted Israel’s approach with Türkiye’s security policy, saying Ankara sought to strengthen the sovereignty, territorial integrity and institutional capacity of regional states. Israel, he argued, pursued security by keeping neighboring actors weak, fragmented and vulnerable to outside intervention.
The report says Israel has sought to legitimize its expansionist ambitions through theological claims to land. It argues that the growing influence of Zionist and far-right actors in political and bureaucratic institutions has helped turn expansionist demands into state policy, backed by military and intelligence capabilities.
It also says Israel’s policies extend beyond military occupation, combining territorial expansion with legal and administrative measures and demographic practices.
According to the report, developments on the ground create new realities that deepen conflicts and security concerns, reinforcing the cycle of instability.
It argues that the policies are not confined to the current government but have been embedded in state institutions and legal frameworks. A change of government alone, therefore, may not be enough to reverse them, the report says.
The report also says the far right has moved from the margins of Israel’s political system to its center. Settler movements, it argues, have become part of the state’s decision-making and implementation mechanisms, with figures from those circles taking positions in government ministries and the bureaucracy.
Israel has the military and technological capabilities to conduct operations far from its borders but cannot sustain a prolonged, high-intensity war on its own, the report says.
It cites the war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran as evidence of Israel’s structural dependence on Washington to sustain its military capabilities.
At the same time, the report points to criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, particularly among younger Americans, as a source of uncertainty over the future of U.S. support.
Israel’s military superiority can provide short-term advantages over neighboring countries but has not translated into lasting regional dominance, the report says.
It adds that although expansionist policies may increase Israel’s military freedom of action in the short term, they could prompt neighboring countries and other regional actors to seek alternative security arrangements over time.
