U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine and broader European security could enhance Türkiye’s role in the continent’s defense capabilities, according to Brussels-based experts.
Since taking office last month, the Trump administration has made a stunning swift reversal of U.S. policy on Ukraine and Europe, causing its European allies to scramble for potential action.
Statements during the Munich Security Conference indicating that the war in Ukraine would be resolved through U.S.-mediated negotiations excluding the EU from the process while expecting European allies to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, which would not become a NATO member, caused concern in Brussels.
In response to these developments, French President Emmanuel Macron convened a summit in Paris on Feb. 17, immediately following the Munich conference.
Attended by leaders from the EU administration, NATO, the U.K., Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark, the summit marked the beginning of discussions on a new phase for Europe's security framework.
Notably, Türkiye, which has the second biggest army in NATO, was absent.
"Given U.S. threats to draw down its forces stationed in Europe, Türkiye's contributions will be increasingly vital for the security and stability of the continent,” senior analyst Amanda Paul from the European Policy Centre think tank argued.
Paul highlighted the 73rd anniversary of Türkiye's NATO membership, celebrated on Feb. 18, underscoring how its inclusion in the alliance has proven to be a strategic decision.
She said, "For the last 73 years, Türkiye has been an important and valued member of the Alliance.
"It has been among the top five contributors to NATO missions and operations both in Europe and elsewhere, including Afghanistan and Iraq. Unlike many other NATO member states, Türkiye has also continued to invest in its armed forces. It is the second-largest standing military in NATO after the United States, which is well equipped with modern weaponry."
She also noted that "Türkiye plays a key role in the alliance's defense and deterrence efforts in both Southern and Eastern Europe" and continues to be a major contributor to NATO's global operations.
Paul pointed out that Türkiye is among the largest contributors to NATO's KFOR mission in Kosovo and has taken on a leadership role in this operation.
She said, "It continues to play an important role, along with other allies, in shoring up European security amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
Highlighting that Türkiye's significance will grow in response to the Trump administration's policies, the senior analyst added: "Many European countries have insufficient military capabilities, failing to invest in their own security for years (unlike Türkiye). At the same time, the EU should start to strengthen its security and defense cooperation with Türkiye to scale up Europe's military capabilities.
"Türkiye has been excluded so far from efforts to build up Europe's defense capacity, including the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), which is incredibly short-sighted."
Koert Debeuf, a professor of international relations at the Brussels School of Governance and a former advisor to the Belgian prime minister, said, "I honestly think that the EU this week is a bit in shock," in reference to the events at the Munich Security Conference.
Debeuf remarked that the EU was unprepared for such a firm stance from the Trump administration and now finds itself in a period of reassessing its strategy and role.
He noted that the EU, having been sidelined in Ukraine peace talks, must now take time to reposition itself. In the coming period, he emphasized that recognizing Türkiye's growing importance will be essential.
He said, "If we're talking about the European army ... it's quite obvious that Türkiye should be at the table. Leaving Türkiye behind would be, I think, a mistake. So certainly when it comes to new evolutions in warfare, being drones and so forth, Türkiye is far ahead."
He also pointed out that strategic thinking is not currently a strong factor in EU decision-making.
Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, director of the Brussels-based European Neighbourhood Council, said, "The new U.S. administration is trying to weaken European countries, including Türkiye."
Vesterbye stressed that, for the Trump administration, "everyone else comes last" besides the U.S.
"It's also entirely clear that Europe cannot defend itself against Russia without a strong partner in Ankara, and vice versa.
"Washington's drastic policy shifts serve as an incentive for EU countries to cooperate more, as well as for new strategic partners like Türkiye and the U.K. to play a bigger role. This applies both to Ukraine, as well as in the context of European procurement and production," the council director said.
He added: "Türkiye has become even more important for NATO since Washington has shown less interest in the European security architecture. Threats are emanating from the Black Sea, from the Mediterranean, and hybridity in ways that would have been unimaginable decades ago."
