Özgür Özel launched his New Party (YP) with a heavy dose of symbolism on Friday, but the political future of the former chairperson of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) will possibly be tested two years from now in general elections. Although he has already secured the title of chairperson of the Turkish Parliament’s second-largest party by luring 91 lawmakers to his side, Özel will have to take on the formidable Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has never lost an election in more than two decades, except for the 2024 municipal vote.
His adventure in Turkish politics may be worthy of a series by a certain streaming service whose logo was partially “borrowed” for the logo of the new party, but people will understandably look forward to seeing how it ends, or fares, in the next election, scheduled for 2028. Özel was a virtual nobody in Turkish politics until 2011, when he was elected as a CHP lawmaker. For a long time, he remained a low-profile politician. The 51-year-old lawmaker steadily climbed the career ladder within the party through his work on parliamentary committees as an outspoken deputy. In 2018, he was elected head of the party’s parliamentary group, a post from which he was demoted again when Kılıçdaroğlu made his comeback last May.
A string of factors with multiple effects will impact the YP’s chances, and the most important among them is the choice of a presidential candidate. Özel rallied supporters around former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu while he was still leading the CHP and even set up a “presidential candidate office” for the mayor, who was arrested in 2025 on corruption charges. Based on the course of his multiple trials, ranging from municipal corruption to espionage, Imamoğlu is unlikely to leave prison anytime soon. Even if he is acquitted of all charges within two years, he will still be ineligible to run for the top office, as a court previously canceled his university diploma after finding it to be fake.
Another rumored candidate is Mansur Yavaş, the CHP mayor of the capital, Ankara. Yet Yavaş has not left the party, although he has appeared supportive of the new party. Özel specifically mentioned his name in speeches leading up to the establishment of the YP, describing him as a key supporter, while Yavaş merely made a phone call to Özel on Saturday to congratulate him. Yavaş and Imamoğlu are viewed as Özel’s options for persuading disillusioned supporters of other parties, especially conservative and nationalist voters, due to their backgrounds, which are more aligned with those groups than the “social democrats” of the CHP.
This raises more questions: What are the political views of the YP, and how can it convince voters beyond Özel’s die-hard fans to vote for it? Özel himself may be declared the presidential candidate for the next election, as he appears to be adopting a new rhetoric brimming with self-confidence about defeating the AK Party. For Özel, it is just a matter of time, and he is counting on widespread support reflected in opinion polls, which still place his party behind the AK Party. The YP has not yet shed its “CHP” image, as Özel summed up the party’s political views as embracing voters from a wide political spectrum without mentioning any specific features that would distinguish those views from “old-school” CHP ideology. On the contrary, he pledged his commitment to the principles of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of the CHP, in his last speech before the party’s inauguration, something the main opposition party has tapped into for years to garner votes from so-called “secular” voters.
Özel knows that he has to adhere to CHP ideology, at least for a while, to keep his current voter base intact. This was evident in his choice of the path taken by Atatürk, the founder of the CHP, more than a century ago as he led the establishment of the Turkish Parliament. Özel visited the tomb of the famed Ankara-based mystic Hacı Bayram-ı Veli, as Atatürk did, and walked to Parliament’s first building. On Saturday, he also visited Atatürk’s mausoleum. Moreover, he made it clear that he chose Friday to formally inaugurate the YP because it was the anniversary of the Treaty of Lausanne, which defined the borders of the new Türkiye after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Özel also seeks to cultivate credibility by claiming that his comrades have been subjected to political pressure through a string of trials, including the Imamoğlu trial and the case that cost him his seat in the CHP over allegations of vote-buying in the 2023 intra-party election in Türkiye’s oldest party.
How much these factors will translate into more votes for the YP remains to be seen, especially given Turkish voters’ tendency not to easily change their preference for one party overnight. Political pundits say that the YP may not be very tempting for older CHP voters. A lingering rivalry between the CHP and the YP may eventually play into the hands of the AK Party, as the two parties hope to secure votes from the same voter base, although neither may have enough support on its own to surpass the AK Party. This is especially true as Özel seems intent on not forming an opposition bloc like former CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu did in the 2023 elections, which he lost. Apart from the AK Party, the YP’s closest rivals will be the government’s ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) and the Good Party (IP). Other smaller parties, such as the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the Key Party (A Party), which have the potential to be dark horses in the next election, are not expected to join an alliance anyway. An alliance with the DEM Party may boost the YP, but the DEM Party also appears unwilling, especially as it now focuses on the “terror-free Türkiye” initiative launched by the People’s Alliance of the AK Party and the MHP.
The YP also lacks the resources that well-established parties have, including Treasury aid, and forming a nationwide organization (opening new offices, finding new delegates and so on) will be a challenge for Özel.
In conclusion, Özel will have to walk a cautious line to achieve success and burnish his credentials to prove that his party has a chance of defeating the AK Party. So far, he has not offered anything new to voters disillusioned with the government and others, other than “inviting” them to vote for the YP. Not kicking them can be a good start, as YP lawmaker Mustafa Sarıgül demonstrated during a quarrel between supporters and those booing Özgür Özel as he was leaving a mosque after Friday prayers in Ankara.
