Spain, led by teenage prodigy Lamine Yamal, France with Kylian Mbappe and Portugal powered by Cristiano Ronaldo, are all closing in on spots at the 2026 World Cup.
Erling Haaland’s blistering form – 12 goals and counting – has Norway on the brink of its first World Cup appearance since before he was born, while pushing Italy toward yet another playoff route after its stunning eliminations in the past two editions.
Germany, meanwhile, faces its own jeopardy. The four-time champion could miss automatic qualification and is eyeing a potential do-or-die clash with Slovakia in Leipzig on Monday.
European qualifying resumes Thursday and by next week, 11 more group winners are expected to join England at the expanded 48-team World Cup co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Europe has 16 places at the expanded tournament – up from 13 at the last 32-team World Cup in Qatar in 2022 – and the final four spots will be decided through playoff brackets in March.
Croatia, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium all are well set to confirm their returns to the World Cup.
Denmark and Austria enter the final week favored to top their groups, though they could be overtaken in final games against, respectively, Scotland and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Spain holds a perfect record with four wins, 15 goals scored and none conceded, yet still faces two tricky games to finish – at Georgia on Saturday and at home against Turkey three days later.
Tbilisi is where Yamal’s international career began as Spain’s youngest-ever player at 16 years and less than two months old in September 2023. He scored as a substitute in a 7-1 win over Georgia in Euro 2024 qualifying.
Yamal will not return this week, as Spain reluctantly allowed him to stay in Barcelona to manage a groin injury.
Turkey, a Euro 2024 quarterfinalist, can first beat Bulgaria to put pressure on Spain ahead of their meeting in Seville on Tuesday.
With goal difference as the first tiebreaker, Turkey needs Spain to drop points in Georgia or win big in Seville – an unlikely outcome after Spain’s 6-0 win in Turkey in September.
France, the 2018 World Cup champion and beaten finalist against Argentina four years later, will advance with a round to spare by defeating Ukraine on Thursday at Parc des Princes.
The match coincides with the 10th anniversary of the deadly terrorist attacks in Paris, including at the Bataclan concert venue and Stade de France, where France was playing Germany. The anniversary will be honored Thursday.
Two draws would be enough for France to top its four-team group, which concludes Sunday away to Azerbaijan.
Portugal also needs just two points from games at Ireland on Thursday and at home against last-place Armenia on Sunday. That would send Ronaldo, who turns 41 in February, to his sixth World Cup.
Ronaldo and Lionel Messi are poised to reach a record sixth tournament, surpassing Lothar Matthäus, who played in three for West Germany and two for reunified Germany from 1982 to 1998.
Norway last played at a men’s World Cup in 1998 and Haaland was born two years later.
Haaland has scored 12 of Norway’s European-best 29 goals in a romp through Group I, which should effectively be won Thursday by beating Estonia in Oslo.
Norway’s goal difference already is 16 better than Italy’s – which it beat 3-0 in June – before the return match Sunday at San Siro. Italy first visits overmatched Moldova.
Germany is back atop its group after starting with a 2-0 loss at Slovakia in September. Slovakia slipped when it lost last month at Northern Ireland and is now tied on points with Germany, which should boost its goal difference Friday at Luxembourg.
Germany will want to win both games to stay in FIFA’s top 10 rankings and secure top-seeded status for the tournament draw Dec. 5 in Washington, D.C.
The Netherlands will all but qualify with a draw Friday at Poland and Switzerland can nearly secure its place by beating Sweden in Geneva on Saturday.
Sweden, now led by English coach Graham Potter, has the expected safety net of the 16-team playoffs after winning a Nations League group last year.
The playoff field will include the 12 qualifying group runners-up plus the four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who finished third or worse in World Cup qualifying groups.
Four brackets of four teams each will be drawn, with single-game semifinals and finals held March 26-31.
The playoff lineup will be confirmed after next Tuesday’s games and FIFA’s updated rankings the following morning will determine seeding pots for the Nov. 20 draw at FIFA headquarters in Zurich.
The four European playoff spots will serve as placeholders in the Dec. 5 World Cup draw, coming from the lowest-ranked Pot 4 – even though Italy currently sits at No. 9.
