Galatasaray return to Istanbul on Thursday with their Europa League hopes hanging by a thread, needing a near-miracle comeback against AZ Alkmaar to overturn a three-goal deficit from the first leg.
The Turkish giants, who fell 4-1 in Alkmaar, must defy history in the playoff decider.
Of 57 teams to lose the first leg of a Europa League knockout tie by three or more goals, only one – Valencia in 2014 – has managed to progress.
If the Lions can beat the odds, they will set up a last-16 showdown with either Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur.
Galatasaray had glimmers of hope in the Netherlands when Roland Sallai canceled out Sven Mijnans’ spectacular free kick.
However, the match unraveled quickly after Kaan Ayhan’s second-half red card, leaving Okan Buruk’s men vulnerable.
AZ took full advantage, regaining the lead through a Troy Parrott penalty before tacking on two more goals to leave the Lions with a mountain to climb.
Defensively, Galatasaray have been far from convincing, conceding in each of their last 21 European matches.
Shipping another on Thursday would all but seal their fate.
Yet, Buruk's side have been prolific at home in continental play, netting three or more goals in six of their last seven European fixtures.
If there’s any team capable of a comeback in front of a raucous home crowd, it’s Galatasaray.
Galatasaray will welcome back several key players from suspension, including defensive anchor Davinson Sanchez, midfield enforcer Lucas Torreira, and star striker Victor Osimhen.
The Nigerian’s return is particularly crucial, as he marked his domestic comeback with a brace in Monday’s 2-0 win over Rizespor.
However, Buruk will be without marquee forwards Alvaro Morata (hamstring) and Mauro Icardi (ACL), leaving Osimhen as the primary attacking threat.
The hosts will also miss versatile defender Ayhan, who is suspended after his first-leg dismissal, while Yunus Akgün and Ismail Jakobs remain sidelined.
Adding to Galatasaray’s selection dilemma, new wing-back Przemyslaw Frankowski and Gabonese midfielder Mario Lemina – both of whom featured against Rizespor – were not included in the club’s updated UEFA squad list.
While Galatasaray boast the most goals in this season’s Europa League with 20, AZ Alkmaar are not far behind, ranking third with just three fewer.
The Dutch side arrive in Istanbul on a four-match winning streak, including a KNVB Beker quarterfinal triumph and back-to-back Eredivisie victories over Willem II and PEC Zwolle.
Maarten Martens’ squad has shown resilience in Europe, though not without drama.
They trailed 3-0 at halftime in their last away fixture against Ferencvaros, only to storm back and win 4-3.
If Galatasaray’s attack catches fire, the return leg could turn into a wild shootout.
AZ will be without injured trio Ruben van Bommel, Sem Westerveld, and Ibrahim Sadiq, but Kristijan Belic returns from suspension to reinforce the midfield.
He will battle for a starting spot alongside Kees Smit – who scored against Galatasaray in November’s 1-1 group-stage draw – Jordy Clasie, and Peer Koopmeiners.
At the sharp end, Sven Mijnans will support Troy Parrott, who has been in lethal form with 17 goals in all competitions, including three in his last three Europa League appearances.
