Türkiye’s return to the World Cup stage could hinge as much on luck of the draw as on the pitch, with the 2026 FIFA World Cup playoffs spotlighting the power of seeding pots.
UEFA’s 16-team playoff system, divided into four paths (A-D), assigns teams to Pots 1 through 4 based on FIFA rankings, creating a hierarchy that dictates match-ups, venues, and strategic opportunities.
Türkiye, the Crescent Stars, earned a Pot 1 slot in Path C thanks to a strong FIFA ranking of 25th - the highest among their path - and now prepares to capitalize on this advantageous position.
Each path features a semifinal pairing of Pot 1 versus Pot 4 and Pot 2 versus Pot 3.
For Türkiye, that means a March 26, 2026, home semifinal against Romania (Pot 4, FIFA rank 47), likely at the Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul.
A win would advance them to the Path C final on March 31, where they would face the winner of Slovakia (Pot 2) versus Kosovo (Pot 3), with the venue determined by the higher-seeded team.
Being a top-seeded side not only grants Türkiye home advantage in the semifinal but also shapes the tactical approach, allowing coach Vincenzo Montella to lean on experience and depth while pressuring lower-ranked opponents early.
Pot allocations shape every team’s trajectory across all paths.
In Path A, Ukraine (Pot 1) face Iceland (Pot 4), with Poland (Pot 2) against Estonia (Pot 3).
Path B sees Sweden (Pot 1) play Bosnia & Herzegovina (Pot 4), while Norway (Pot 2) meets Slovenia (Pot 3).
Path D matches Israel (Pot 1) versus Wales (Pot 4) and Scotland (Pot 2) against Armenia (Pot 3).
Each Pot 1 team begins as the favorite, but single-leg elimination ensures that lower-seeded sides can upset expectations, adding drama to every semifinal and final.
The pots’ influence extends beyond the playoffs.
Once all four UEFA winners are determined, they are seeded into Pot 4 for the Dec. 5, 2025, World Cup draw, potentially placing Türkiye against top-ranked teams from Pots 1-3.
This creates a dual challenge: first, navigate a playoff route designed to favor Pot 1 teams while avoiding pitfalls, then confront the world’s elite in the group stage.
For Türkiye, success in Pot 1 is not just about favorable match-ups - it’s about leveraging a structural advantage to break a 24-year absence from the World Cup since their 2002 third-place finish.
