A heat wave from Africa is expected to affect Türkiye. Temperatures have been rising since late May, and experts say highs could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some parts of the country.
Güven Özdemir, a meteorology expert and faculty member at Aydın University, said temperatures are expected to rise further in August, with the possibility of record highs in July and August.
He attributed the increase to multiple factors, including heat island effects, greenhouse gas emissions, warming of the lower atmosphere and hot air masses moving in from Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. He also pointed to the influence of high-pressure systems.
Özdemir said El Nino is expected to have only an indirect effect on Türkiye: “Whether El Nino intensifies or a super El Nino develops will become clearer by late July or August,” he said. “Its main impact on us would likely be around December or January” and added that El Nino currently remains in a neutral phase.
Özdemir pointed out that temperatures in Istanbul will be high due to dense urbanization and greenhouse gas concentrations and said that temperatures could reach 36-38 degrees Celsius (about 97-100 degrees Fahrenheit) in the city, while coastal areas may feel temperatures of around 30-32 degrees Celsius (about 86-90 degrees Fahrenheit).
He added that the highest temperatures are expected in July and August and that drought conditions are continuing as rainfall decreases during the summer months.
“El Nino has not yet begun to affect temperatures,” Özdemir said. “It is currently near neutral. There is no significant activity in the Pacific at the moment.”
He noted that La Nina is expected to weaken while El Nino may gradually strengthen, but said the situation remains uncertain. Changes in Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures will determine whether El Nino develops further, he added.
Özdemir said several atmospheric factors influence Türkiye’s climate, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, jet streams and convective activity.
He said El Nino and La Nina do not directly affect Türkiye but can have indirect effects.
“The main drivers for Türkiye are the North Atlantic Oscillation, heat waves from Africa, Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, jet streams and pressure systems such as the Azores high and the Icelandic low,” he said.
Özdemir warned that temperatures in southeastern and Mediterranean regions could exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) at times this summer.
He said short cooling periods may occur, but they are likely to be followed by intense heat waves.
He attributed extreme heat conditions to high-pressure systems, clear skies and strong solar radiation.
“Our biggest problem is the formation of heat islands,” he said. “As greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide increase, they trap heat in the atmosphere, warming both the surface and the air above it.”
He said conditions resembling an “oven effect” can occur when desert heat from Africa and the Arabian Peninsula combines with high-pressure systems.
“Temperatures will rise in August,” he said. “Record highs are likely in July and August due to heat islands, greenhouse gas warming and hot air masses from Africa and Arabia.”
