Since August, the Sındırgı district of Balıkesir in western Türkiye has been experiencing an unprecedented level of seismic activity, with nearly 18,000 tremors recorded in just three months, according to associate professor Bülent Özmen, a disaster management expert at Gazi University.
Since the initial 6.1-magnitude earthquake on Aug. 10, the region has experienced nearly 18,000 recorded tremors over a three-month span, including two significant quakes of magnitude 6.1 and approximately 80 exceeding magnitude 4. Özmen underscored the unprecedented frequency and scale of this seismic activity in Türkiye’s historical records.
“The earthquake activity in Sındırgı can be attributed to both tectonic stress and magmatic intrusion,” Özmen explained. “The occurrence of two magnitude 6.1 earthquakes, combined with the volume of tremors, is highly unusual and constitutes a unique seismic event.”
Özmen emphasized the need for urgent, detailed geological and geophysical studies, including the installation of temporary earthquake observation stations in Sındırgı and surrounding areas to accurately monitor micro-earthquake parameters.
He highlighted key indicators that should be tracked continuously to provide early warning signs, such as fluctuations in underground water levels, radon gas emissions, changes in electrical resistivity, variations in electric and magnetic fields, and abnormal bending or deformation of the earth’s crust.
“These parameters, when monitored in real-time, can significantly enhance our understanding of earthquake patterns and aid in predicting future seismic behavior,” he said. “All collected data should be compiled into a comprehensive dataset and analyzed by the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) Earthquake Science Board, which should produce actionable reports and establish short-, medium- and long-term regional strategies.”
The AFAD’s recent designation of the area as a “Disaster Area Affecting General Life” was noted, but Özmen cautioned that more stringent classifications, such as “disaster-exposed zone” or declaring a “state of emergency,” should be considered if current measures prove inadequate.
Recognizing the sustained psychological and physical toll on residents who have been living under continuous seismic threat for three months, Özmen called for immediate expansion of temporary shelter facilities, streamlined relocation options for those wishing to move, and uninterrupted delivery of education and health care services through specially tailored arrangements.
He also referenced scientific assessments confirming that the nearby Simav Fault Zone and Gelenbe Fault possess the potential to produce earthquakes reaching magnitude 7. According to seismic energy calculations, releasing the energy of a magnitude 7 event would require approximately 31 magnitude 6 tremors, a threshold Sındırgı has only crossed twice during the current seismic sequence.
