Canadians head to the ballots on Monday to either extend the Liberal Party’s decade-long rule or shift power to the Conservatives, choosing between new Prime Minister Mark Carney and populist opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, in an election that also serves as an indirect referendum on Donald Trump.
The U.S. president trolled Canadians on election day with a post on social media suggesting he was on the ballot and repeating that Canada should become the 51st state, incorrectly claiming that the U.S. subsidizes Canada.
"It makes no sense unless Canada is a State!” Trump posted.
Until Trump won a second term and began threatening Canada's economy and sovereignty, the Liberals looked headed for defeat.
Trump’s truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel U.S. vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.
Trump also put Poilievre and the Conservative Party on the back foot after they appeared headed for an easy victory months ago.
"The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Carney said recently, laying out what he saw as the election's stakes. "Those aren't just words. That's what's at risk.”
Polls opened across Canada as the country also grapples with the aftermath of a fatal car ramming attack on Saturday in Vancouver. The tragedy prompted the suspension of campaigning for several hours. Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.
Poilievre walked hand in hand with his wife to the ballot box. "Get out to vote, for a change,” he said.
Poilievre, a firebrand who campaigned with Trump-like bravado, had hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged.
But then, Trump became the dominant issue, and Poilievre's similarities to the bombastic president could cost him.
"He appeals to the same sense of grievance,” Canadian historian Robert Bothwell said of the Conservative leader. "It’s like Trump standing there saying, 'I am your retribution.’”
Bothwell added: "The Liberals ought to pay him. Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”
Foreign policy hasn’t dominated a Canadian election this much since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the prevailing issue.
Canada has been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis for some time. And more than 75% of its exports go to the U.S., so Trump's threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada's production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.
Both Carney and Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of a free trade deal between Canada and the U.S. in a bid to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.
Carney has notable experience navigating economic crises after running Canada’s central bank and later becoming the first non-U.K. citizen to run the Bank of England.
Trump dialed back his talk of Canada becoming the 51st state during the campaign until last week, when he said Canada "would cease to exist as a country” if the U.S. stopped buying its goods. He also said he’s not just trolling Canada when he says it should become a state.
In response to the threats to Canadian sovereignty, Carney pleaded with voters to deliver him a strong mandate to deal with Trump.
"President Trump has some obsessive ideas, and that is one,” Carney said of his annexation threat. "It’s not a joke. It’s his very strong desire to make this happen. It’s one of the reasons why this crisis is so serious.”
