While the first round of Iran-U.S. talks in Islamabad raised cautious hopes for progress, the negotiations ended without a breakthrough, falling short on key disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program.
As a fragile two-week cease-fire approached its deadline, expectations shifted to a second round that was expected to revive diplomacy, but the meeting has yet to take place.
The cease-fire, initially agreed on April 8, was extended by the U.S. at the last minute to allow more time for negotiations, but without Iran’s formal backing, leaving it fragile.
Continued tensions, including disputes over a U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s hesitation to return to talks, have since stalled momentum and cast doubt over the prospects of a near-term agreement.
Amid this uncertainty, Iran expert Mustafa Caner said the trajectory of negotiations is being shaped not only by disputes between Washington and Tehran but also by deepening divisions within Iran itself.
“The second phase is planned to be in Islamabad again, but the timing is still unclear,” Caner said. “There are serious disagreements inside Iran regarding the negotiation terms and that makes the overall picture quite uncertain.”
He pointed to growing domestic backlash against Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi following statements suggesting a more flexible approach to maritime access and negotiations.
“There is strong pressure from conservative circles asking what exactly has been agreed with the U.S.,” Caner said. “Particularly on issues like enriched uranium, which is considered a red line for the Iranian establishment.”
Public statements by U.S. leadership regarding Iran’s nuclear material have further complicated the situation, amplifying internal tensions in Tehran.
“Even if we cannot fully verify those claims, such statements have had a real impact,” he said. “They have placed the foreign minister in a very difficult position domestically.”
According to Caner, Iran’s political structure currently reflects a widening gap between its diplomatic institutions and hardline security actors.
“The Foreign Ministry is relatively more pragmatic and open to dialogue, even if they are cautious in expressing it,” he said. “But Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and conservative factions are far more rigid and unwilling to make concessions.”
This divergence has created what he described as a fragmented decision-making environment.
“As long as this internal rift persists, it will be very difficult to reach a meaningful agreement in the short term,” he added.
One of the most contentious issues remains the future of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy corridor. Caner said some Iranian demands regarding the Strait are viewed by regional actors as unrealistic.
“There are demands that can be considered reasonable, such as compensation for war-related damage,” he said. “But others, like maintaining exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz, are seen as maximalist and unlikely to be accepted.”
Despite the stalled negotiations, Caner noted there are limited signs of de-escalation, including the reopening of some Iranian airports.
“If you expect the conflict to continue at full scale, you would not reopen airports,” he said. “This indicates that there is at least some expectation of de-escalation.”
Still, he cautioned that conflicting narratives and ongoing strategic messaging continue to obscure the true state of relations.
“There is also an ongoing propaganda dynamic,” he said. “So while there may be some level of understanding between the sides, it is not clearly defined or publicly articulated.”
Caner also argued that regional developments, including targeted actions against key figures, have contributed to hardening positions within Iran.
“When more moderate and diplomatically experienced figures are removed, it strengthens the hand of more rigid actors,” he said. “That reduces the space for compromise.”
Turning to Türkiye’s role, Caner said Ankara has positioned itself as a credible mediator focused on containing the conflict and preventing wider regional escalation.
“Türkiye is seen as a reliable diplomatic actor that all sides can engage with,” he said. “Its primary objective has been to prevent this conflict from spreading.”
He highlighted efforts to discourage broader regional involvement, particularly from Gulf countries.
“Keeping major regional actors out of the conflict has been critical,” Caner said. “If the conflict had expanded further, the consequences would have been much more severe.”
Türkiye has also been working in coordination with countries such as Pakistan and Egypt as part of a broader regional diplomatic effort.
“This reflects a concept of regional responsibility,” he said. “Regional actors are increasingly taking initiative to manage crises in their own neighborhood.”
While prospects for a comprehensive agreement remain uncertain, Caner said such coordination could help stabilize the situation.
“It is a promising development,” he said. “Even if a full agreement is not imminent, these efforts can contribute to reducing tensions and keeping diplomatic channels open.”
In recent weeks, Türkiye has stepped up diplomatic engagement to support de-escalation efforts. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held separate phone calls with his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to coordinate ongoing mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran.
He also discussed the talks with Pakistan in follow-up contacts, as Islamabad continues to host and facilitate negotiations.
In parallel, Türkiye has engaged with Egypt and other regional actors, including meetings on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, where officials from Türkiye, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia coordinated efforts to revive diplomacy and prevent further escalation.
