Positive indicators across a range of economic data, from inflation and growth to exports and employment, balance of payments and credit risk premiums, have raised the goals and expectations related to the Turkish economy outlook in 2026, according to a report on Tuesday.
The compilation of data made by the Anadolu Agency (AA) evaluated key data in the past couple of months, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth as well as recently announced foreign trade data.
The Turkish economy grew by 3.7% in the third quarter of 2025 and has continued uninterrupted growth for 21 consecutive quarters. The national income, which was $1.26 trillion in 2024, reached a record-breaking $1.538 trillion in the third quarter of 2025.
Another positive trend was observed in exports. Exports in December 2025 increased by 12.8% compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching $26.4 billion and marking the highest monthly export figure of all time. The total export volume last year reached $273.4 billion, aligning with the target set in the Medium-Term Program (MTP) and becoming the highest level seen in the republic's history.
Goods exports surged by 4.5% year-over-year, ending 2025 at $273.4 billion, and authorities aim to continue this year in pursuit of new records.
Moreover, thanks to increases in the exports of goods and services, the current account deficit projected at around 1.4% of national income by the end of 2025 remained at sustainable levels. In October, Türkiye's current account posted a surplus of $457 million, while the current account excluding gold and energy showed a surplus of around $7.03 billion. The current account has remained in positive territory for four consecutive months as of October.
While many economic indicators set new records and observed a positive momentum, the downward trend in inflation is also ongoing. In December, the consumer price index (CPI) declined to 30.89%, marking its lowest level since late 2021.
When analyzing subgroups of consumer prices, the downward trend in inflation was seen across various spending categories, showing the lowest levels in recent months. The services group – also known as "services inflation" – recorded a year-over-year increase of 43.99% in December, which was the lowest in 44 months. The previous low was in April 2022 at 42.18%.
"Rent inflation," another key element affecting overall prices, also fell to its lowest level in 34 months. Measured at 61.61% in December, rent inflation hadn't dropped to this level since February 2023.
CPI indicators also revealed that core goods inflation dropped to its lowest level in 60 months. In December, the annual change in core goods prices was 17.71%. The only time it was lower in the last five years was in December 2020, when it was 17.24%. Thus, December 2025 marked the lowest core goods inflation rate recorded in five years.
The unemployment rate edged up slightly by 0.1 percentage points in November 2025 compared to the previous month, reaching 8.6%. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate has remained in single-digit territory for the past 31 months.
The country’s five-year credit default swap (CDS), meanwhile, dropped to 204.5 basis points, hitting its lowest level since May 2018. As a result, both public and private sector borrowing costs decreased significantly, improving access to external financing under more favorable conditions.
At the same time, the stock market saw a positive course, particularly in the first days of the new year. The BIST 100 index hit a new record on Monday after nearly four months, supported by positive macroeconomic signals and a decline in borrowing costs. Starting the year at 11,296.52 points, the BIST 100 index closed on Monday at a record 11,702 points.
Also, the results of the manufacturing PMI survey for December, conducted by Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and S&P Global, revealed that the index rose for the second consecutive month from 48 in November 2025 to 48.9. As such, the deterioration in business conditions in the last month of the previous year remained very limited, marking the mildest contraction in the past 12 months. The index’s approach to the critical threshold value of 50 drew attention.
