A commission tasked with setting the national minimum wage in Türkiye is due to hold its second meeting on Thursday, with talks over next year's pay raise likely to continue without the participation of officials representing workers.
The minimum wage adjustment will directly affect millions of workers and is widely seen as a benchmark for private-sector pay rises. It also carries significant implications for inflation, labor costs and future interest rate decisions.
The first meeting, held on Friday, was attended by government officials and representatives of the employers' confederation TISK. Türk-Iş, the confederation representing workers on the tripartite committee, has repeatedly said it won't take part in the negotiations.
Thursday's meeting is expected to focus on economic data and the demands of the parties. Officials from the Treasury and Finance Ministry, the Trade Ministry and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) are set to present reports and assessments to the commission.
Labour and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan said on Wednesday it was too early to discuss specific figures.
"It is very early to talk about a number because we need to take the views of all sides and evaluate them within the commission," Işıkhan told reporters in parliament.
He said the government would continue to rely on social dialogue mechanisms.
Shortly before the first meeting, Türk-Iş representatives met with Işıkhan to submit a file outlining their reasons for not joining the negotiations.
The confederation earlier complained about the structure of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which consists of 15 members, five each from the government, employers and workers.
On Tuesday, Işıkhan said the government was in "open communication" with all unions.
"We will operate every process required by social dialogue. I will meet with the unions and get their views; this is my duty, and we will definitely engage in consultations," he said.
However, Türk-Iş is widely expected to skip Thursday's meeting as well.
"We are not at the table. No one has met with us," its deputy chair Ramazan Ağar said on Wednesday. "We remain at the same point; we will not participate in the commission meetings," Ağar told private broadcaster CNBC-e.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has urged TISK to show "flexibility" in the talks. He has repeatedly pledged they wouldn't allow households to be "crushed" by inflation.
Türkiye's net monthly minimum wage was raised 30% to TL 22,104 for 2025. Many economists expect the 2026 increase to be set at around 25%. HSCB estimated the rise at 20%.
Annual inflation in the country cooled to 31.1% in November, the lowest level in four years.
The Turkish central bank's end-2025 interim inflation target stands at 24%, with a forecast range of 31%-33%. It expects inflation to fall to its 16% interim target by the end of 2026, in line with the government's medium-term program. For next year, the bank projects inflation between 13% and 19%.
