Inflation in the United States moved slightly higher in November, fueled by pricier used cars, hotel rooms and auto insurance, official data showed on Wednesday, but that is unlikely to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a third time next week against the backdrop of a cooling labor market.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, up from a yearly figure of 2.6% in October, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices increased 3.3%, the same as in the previous month.
From October to November, consumer prices climbed 0.3%, the biggest monthly increase since April after advancing 0.2% for four straight months. Core prices also rose 0.3% for a fourth straight month.
Wednesday's figures are the final major piece of data that Federal Reserve officials will consider before they meet next week to decide on interest rates. The relatively mild increase won’t likely be enough to discourage the officials from cutting their key rate by a quarter-point, as most economists and Wall Street traders expect.
Though inflation is now way below its peak of 9.1% in June 2022, average prices are still about 20% higher than they were three years ago – a major source of public discontent that helped drive President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Nonetheless, progress in lowering inflation down to the U.S. central bank's 2% target has virtually stalled in recent months.
The Fed is, however, now more focused on the labor market. Though job growth accelerated in November after being severely restricted by strikes and hurricanes in October, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% after holding at 4.1% for two consecutive months.
The Fed slashed its benchmark rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, by a sizable half-point in September and by a quarter-point in November. Those cuts lowered the central bank’s key rate to 4.6%, down from a four-decade high of 5.3%.
Early on Wednesday, financial markets saw a roughly 86% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut at the Fed's Dec. 17-18 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Fewer rate cuts are, however, expected next year than had been anticipated a few months ago.
Though slower inflation is forecast next year amid moderation in rents and rising labor market slack, that could be offset by higher prices from tariffs and mass deportations that have been promised by Trump.
"From a fundamental standpoint, we do not see material upside risk to inflation," said Stephen Juneau, an economist at Bank of America Securities. "That said, progress on inflation should stall next year given our expected changes to tariffs, fiscal and immigration policies."
Fed officials have made clear that they expect inflation to fluctuate along a bumpy path even as it gradually cools toward their target level. In speeches last week, several of the central bank’s policymakers stressed their belief that with inflation having already fallen so far, it was no longer necessary to keep their benchmark rate quite as high.
Typically, the Fed cuts rates to try to stimulate the economy enough to maximize employment, yet not so much as to drive inflation high. But the U.S. economy appears to be in solid shape. It grew at a brisk 2.8% annual pace in the July-September quarter, bolstered by healthy consumer spending. That has led some Wall Street analysts to suggest that the Fed doesn’t actually need to cut its key rate further.
But Chair Jerome Powell has said that the central bank is seeking to "recalibrate” its rate to a lower setting, one more in line with tamer inflation. In addition, hiring has slowed a bit in recent months, raising the risk that the economy could weaken in the coming months. Additional rate cuts by the Fed could offset that risk.
One possible threat to the Fed’s efforts to keep inflation down is Trump’s threat to impose widespread tariffs on U.S. imports – a move that economists say would likely send inflation higher.
Trump has said he could impose tariffs of 10% on all imports and 60% on goods from China. As a consequence, economists at Goldman Sachs have forecast that core inflation would amount to 2.7% by the end of 2025. Without tariffs, they estimate it would drop to 2.4%.
When the Fed’s meeting ends Wednesday, it will not only announce its interest rate decision. The policymakers will also issue their latest quarterly projections for the economy and interest rates. In September, they projected four rate cuts for 2025. The officials will likely scale back that figure next week.
