Adverse health impacts linked to greenhouse gases, air pollutants and toxic chemicals emitted from the global plastics system could more than double by 2040, a study has found.
Modelling research, published in the Lancet Planetary Health on Monday, identified health harms linked to every stage of the plastics life cycle – from fossil fuels extraction and material production to their disposal and release into the environment.
These included respiratory illnesses, cancers, the health impacts of global warming and other serious diseases.
The study team, led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) alongside the University of Toulouse and the University of Exeter, used modelling to compare several different future scenarios of plastics production, consumption and waste management between 2016 and 2040.
Under a "business as usual" scenario, their findings suggest that negative health impacts from plastics could double.
Greenhouse gas emissions and linked global warming would account for 40% of these health harms, according to the modelling.
Air pollution – mainly from plastics production processes – could account for 32%, and the impact of toxic chemicals released to the environment could account for 27%.
And less than 1% would relate to reduced availability of water, impacts on the ozone layer and increased ionising radiation.
The researchers say the study is the first of its kind to assess the number of healthy years of life lost because of plastic emissions at a global scale.
With no change to the current system, annual health impacts could more than double from 2.1 million years lost in 2016 to 4.5 million in 2040.
Overall, the study estimates it could be responsible for cutting 83 million years of healthy population life between 2016 and 2040.
A scenario where actions were taken to increase plastic waste collection or recycling in isolation was found to have little impact on reducing global health burdens.
But combining measures in a full system change, which would also involve limits on production, the modelling showed the global health burden of plastics would reduce by 43% in 2040, compared to the business-as-usual scenario.
Megan Deeney, study author and research fellow at LSHTM, said: "Often the blame is put on us as individual consumers of plastics to solve the problem, but while we all have an important role to play in reducing the use of plastics our analysis shows systemic change is needed ‘from the cradle to the grave' of plastic production, use and disposal.
"Much more ambitious action from governments and industry transparency is needed to curb this growing global plastics public health crisis.
"Industry non-disclosure and inconsistent reporting of plastics' chemical composition is severely limiting the ability of Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) to inform effective policy to protect humans, ecosystems and the environment."
Co-author Xiaoyu Yan, from the University of Exeter, said: "We've shown that repurposing modelling methods which are usually used to evaluate the environmental footprint of individual products and technologies are an increasingly important tool to tackle sustainability questions at a much larger scale.
"Our study shows that this approach can help uncover the massive impacts of plastics on human health throughout the life cycle.
"We now need urgent action to reduce the impacts of plastics on the environment and ultimately human health."
