On Friday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a decree for Türkiye to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, 2023. The country thus started counting down to the most consequential elections in its recent past – and this year’s most important election worldwide.
The Turkish people will cast their votes as Türkiye focuses on healing the wounds of last month’s catastrophe. To be clear, the short amount of time left until election day represents the home stretch of a marathon.
The opposition parties have been talking about an early election since the municipal elections in 2019. They spent the last 13 months discussing the "table for six" and its joint presidential candidate.
Whereas observers are currently waiting for the pro-PKK Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) candidate, everyone knows that Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) chairperson, will be the top contenders in the presidential race.
The question is which candidate will win a simple majority in the first or second round. Presidential candidates intend to run a campaign with no music or colors, but I am confident that the home stretch will be intense and full of rhetorical battles and twists.
Having Meral Akşener, the Good Party’s (IP) chairperson, back to the "table" following her "stoning," the opposition feels confident. They are raising the stakes by circulating certain polls claiming that Kılıçdaroğlu leads the race. If the HDP endorses Kılıçdaroğlu instead of contesting the presidential election – which is what I expect – the CHP elites will be fully mobilized. Overwhelmed by that mindset, the fringe parties (whose leaders sit around the table for six) have already started loose talk that goes against their mission and past.
Now that the People’s Alliance and the National Alliance have selected their presidential candidates, all the relevant parties will hit the road in an attempt to mobilize voters. My sense is that whichever side does a better job at mobilizing their base will win the race.
No matter what pollsters say, the presidential race will not be a walk in the park for either alliance.
The People’s Alliance will compete against Kılıçdaroğlu – whom they wanted to run. However, the CHP chairperson strongarmed Akşener, who opposed his candidacy, and forced her to rejoin the table for six. Indeed, Akşener has been wounded so severely that the IP might lose more votes than any other movement on May 14. Kılıçdaroğlu, in turn, hopes to receive HDP’s endorsement to form an “alliance of democracy” that the opposition desperately craves for.
The Turkish people may listen to CHP and HDP spokespersons talk, but what Kılıçdaroğlu pledged to the HDP, in official and secret negotiations, to receive their endorsement will be discussed until election day. They will remember what Akşener and others said to block Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy.
On the campaign trail, Kılıçdaroğlu’s main challenge will be to reassure voters. After all, the CHP chair repeatedly broke his promises. Let us recall that he initially opposed the nomination of party leaders – only to run himself by throwing Akşener under the bus. He also insisted that the president must not be affiliated with any political party. If he wins, however, he will remain in charge of the CHP until the parliamentary system is adopted.
I do not expect the HDP to demand any ministerial appointments for endorsing Kılıçdaroğlu. We will have to wait and see whether they will make any ideologically-charged statements that may frustrate Turkish voters.
Whereas the country has focused on which movement joined which alliance and how they will select candidates for Parliament, the million-dollar question is who will usher Türkiye into its second century: Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu?
The intensity of the upcoming race highlights how important civilian politics are in Türkiye. Whether it is changing the political system or rebuilding the country, everyone knows that politicians alone will determine the future – that the ballot box is the only point of reference.
There are few commentators, who are detached from reality and desperately trying to vent, claiming that Türkiye will “become another North Korea” if the People’s Alliance were to win, or celebrating the arrival of the “Turkish spring.”
Those folks, who try to intimidate voters with references to authoritarianism, are merely trying to stop people from asking why they agreed to sit at the CHP chairperson’s table. Over the following weeks, we will witness an intense battle that will bring up the country’s recent past and enable voters to take stock of everything anew.
