For nearly half a century – including the generation I belong to – much of humanity has grown up on CIA conspiracy stories and narratives of Western superiority and hegemony. The underlying assumption has always been the same: Whenever the U.S. sets out to accomplish something, it inevitably succeeds. It always achieves results and ultimately prevails. This mindset has, in effect, been presented to the world as an unquestionable presumption.
Yet when one examines recent history, the U.S. has carried out two major military undertakings: the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. In both cases, the outcome was little more than leaving those countries in chaos and despair. Washington fought the Taliban for decades, only to withdraw and hand Afghanistan back to the same Taliban after nearly 30 years.
The story in Iraq is no different. Once one of the world’s wealthiest nations – blessed with vast oil reserves – Iraq is today better known for widespread poverty among its people and its inability to establish a lasting political order. Even years after the U.S. invasion, the country has yet to achieve genuine stability.
On the other hand, Venezuela seemed like an easy target for the United States, and Washington, so to speak, swallowed it whole.
After the end of the Cold War, the U.S. remained the sole global superpower – effectively the world’s policeman. But this period of unchallenged dominance has also eroded international law and human rights norms.
Meanwhile, during the massacres, destruction and genocide in Gaza, Israel has acted as though humanitarian law simply does not apply to it, claiming instead to operate under a kind of divine mandate – one that is similar to Daesh. Yet this so-called divine law is not a direct command of the Torah. Rather, it reflects a set of myths constructed by Israelis themselves and elevated into a form of Zionist belief that venerates those very narratives.
Today, the U.S., confident in its overwhelming military strength and arsenal, appears to take few states seriously. By my estimation, U.S. President Donald Trump regards only a handful of countries as genuine states worth serious consideration – perhaps Russia, China, Türkiye, and to some extent Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Beyond these, even European countries seem increasingly treated by Washington as little more than secondary actors rather than fully sovereign powers.
When Israel attacked Iran, it initiated a war riddled with contradictions. If the target were a terrorist organization, one might justify assassinating its leader after declaring it illegal and mobilizing public opinion. One might say, “This man is lawless, a mafia boss who disregards the rule of law, and therefore must be eliminated.”
But when a state begins to regard the legitimate leaders of another sovereign state as lawful targets – claiming the right to assassinate them – it signals something far more profound: the collapse of the international order. In my view, the Israel-U.S.-Iran conflict has begun on precisely such a dangerous foundation.
The outcome of a war involving Iran, the U.S. and Israel could theoretically favor any side. Yet one thing is certain: the conflict has spread fear among nations and people alike. It suggests that the world may be entering an era where humanitarian law, international law, and even the traditional rules of war no longer carry meaning. Instead, the “law of the jungle” appears to be taking hold – and that prospect is unsettling for everyone.
A new global paradigm seems to be emerging: Rather than deriving power from justice, states now seek to justify themselves through power. This is not a debate limited to the U.S.; it is being discussed globally, from East to West.
Whatever the outcome of this war, it is obvious that a country with more than 2,500 years of state tradition will not simply disappear. Iran will continue to exist as a state. If you bomb a nation’s cities, kill its people and slaughter its children – and then promise them freedom – only the most naive or foolish would believe such a promise.
During negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, reports circulated that the talks were progressing positively. Representing Washington in these discussions were figures such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Observing this progress, Israel chose not to wait for the U.S. Instead, it decided to launch a direct attack on Iran.
Washington’s expectations regarding Iran also appear to have been misguided. Perhaps policymakers believed that once 30 or so missiles or bombs were fired, the Iranian people would pour into the streets and overthrow the regime within days. Yet history shows that rooted state structures rarely collapse so easily. On the other hand, Iran is putting aside a certain percentage of its national income as a war budget, as it has been considering this war coming for almost half a century.
In my view, the immediate winner of the war between Israel, the U. S. and Iran is already clear: Israel. We cannot yet predict how long the conflict will last. But once a war drags on for more than a few days, it becomes obvious that the U.S. cannot simply deploy troops and occupy Iran – a country far too large and powerful for such an operation. Regardless of the final outcome, Israel will have succeeded in weakening a rival it perceives as a strategic threat.
The real loser, however, will be the U.S. While the American public expects better health care, stronger education and a more stable economy, the country once again finds itself drawn into another Middle Eastern war – this time on Israel’s behalf. For years, there has been debate in America over whether Israel exerts undue influence over U.S. policy. The more conservative wing of the MAGA movement, which has long asked, “Is Israel effectively steering American policy?”, now believes its concerns have been true.
What we are witnessing is Israel launching yet another war – one that the U.S. is now trapped in, and whose end remains uncertain. The arguments being used to justify it sound familiar. They resemble the claims once made by Saddam Hussein in his conflict with Iran: that a dangerous state must be stopped before its missiles threaten distant nations. Or the claim repeated for nearly two decades: “If we waited just a few more weeks, Iran would have achieved nuclear capability.” These arguments have been heard many times before.
In the end, one can only say: Let us see what the Almighty will do.
