Kazakhstan has been in turmoil since the beginning of the new year. The protests started on Jan. 2 and troops from countries including Russia were sent to calm the unrest. Thousands of people have been detained throughout the country and the internet was shut down until recently. The demonstrations were triggered by a rise in fuel prices, but Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev claims that "external forces" tried to destabilize the country. The authorities arrested about 12,000 people for participating in the events and at least 160 were killed. Government buildings were set on fire, and the airport was seized. In a short period of time, the government seems to have gained control. The airport is open again and the state of emergency is being lifted in some parts of the country.
As the wave started, Tokayev announced a 180-day cap on fuel prices and fired Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s strong ex-president, from his post as head of the National Security Council. Here I should reiterate that demonstrators across the country chanted on the streets "old man out," referring to Nazarbayev.
After the first protests, new groups armed with guns and heavy weaponry took over the streets of Almaty. It was these groups who stormed official buildings, attacked the police and destroyed cars. It was after they took to the streets that the airport was breached. They created widespread unrest and looted the banks. But what caused the protests to change in nature?
The government and protesters agree that the peaceful demonstrations were violated by violent criminal groups.
Now, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance comprising of six ex-Soviet states, is in the country to back the Kazakh forces against the protesters. Although the Russian forces are withdrawing from the country, many analysts say that this may lead Russia to gain ground in Kazakhstan, giving it more control over and in the country.
Tokayev seems to have gained more control and eliminated the power of Nazarbayev, who was still the main force in the country. There are also claims that the demonstrations were used as a tool in an internal power struggle and that Tokayev manipulated them to facilitate the dismissal of Nazarbayev.
However, in order to take control, he let the Russian forces in and by doing so opened the way for Moscow to have more influence in the country. In short, it is too early to say whether Tokayev gained more control. He was definitely able to stop sharing his power with Nazarbayev, but the results of the tradeoff he made are not clear yet.
What is clear is that the situation seems to have clearly calmed down, with thousands of people arrested and around 225 killed. However, two questions remain: How far can Tokayev expand his power, and how much Russia will gain?
