Turkish influence on the international balance of power

When the Cold War ended and the leaders of the Warsaw Pact retired from the scene, the other members of the alliance had to take care of themselves. As Yugoslavia splintered violently, 15 sovereign states emerged from the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and the Baltic states set their course towards the West. Almost all former members of the Warsaw Pact were in economic and political turmoil.

Finding itself in an unexpected and unrivaled hegemony in the international arena, the U.S. declared itself to be the world’s gendarmerie. Labelled as “the new world order,” this unipolar international system of the post-Cold War period enabled the U.S. to occupy Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Yemen with impunity.

One of the fundamental changes that occurred in the international system was the weakening of international law and institutions.

The United Nations transformed into an international platform, which the U.S. administration abused to legitimize its military occupations.

Even former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell declared that he was himself deceived by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to present fabricated evidence about Iraq’s production of weapons of mass destruction in the U.N. General Assembly (UNGA).

Russia's rise

While the U.S. declared its war on terror, Russia took to the world stage during the Syrian crisis.

Due to the hesitancy of former U.S. President Barack Obama's administration, Russia has reemerged as a military rival to the U.S. in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In addition to Russia, China’s rise as a superpower in the international system demonstrated that the unipolar international system has been replaced with a multipolar and multidimensional international system.

Thanks to its geopolitical significance, Turkey has come to the forefront as a regional power with the capacity to influence the course of international politics.

At the NATO Summit in Brussels, the relations between the U.S. and the European Union constituted one of the main topics for NATO leaders.

The NATO summit was also crucial in terms of relations between Turkey and the U.S., hosting the first face-to-face bilateral meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Joe Biden.

Turkish cards

The following issues greatly strengthen Turkey’s hand in this meeting:

• Hosting 5 million Syrian refugees, Turkey played such an active role during the Syrian civil war that it has become one of the four leading players in the Syrian crisis.
• Turkey’s unbending support for Libya's U.N.-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) led the other players in the region to cooperate with the GNA.
• Turkey succeeded in protecting its international rights in the Eastern Mediterranean thanks to its will and capacity to guarantee its treaty with the Libyan government in terms of maritime jurisdiction.
• Turkey’s technical and diplomatic support for Azerbaijan changed the course of the Nagorno-Karabakh war. After the victory of Azerbaijan, a territorial channel has been established between Turkey and the Turkic states. Due to the expansionism of China, both the U.S. and Russia have a high opinion of Turkey’s influence over the Turkic countries.
• Since the Baltic countries consider Russia as a threat, they attach importance to Turkey’s stance in Crimea.
• Even though the U.S. provides indisputable support for Israel’s security, the Israeli government requires Turkey’s support to normalize relations with the countries of the Middle East.
• Holding one of the greatest armies of NATO, Turkey is an indispensable member of the alliance. Without Turkey, NATO’s capacity for deterrence would be greatly diminished.
• Even though Russia and Turkey have conflicting interests in a number of international issues, Russia respects Turkey as a regional power.
• Despite the biased stance of the American bureaucracy against Turkey, the Erdoğan-Biden meeting created a positive prospect for the Turkish-U.S. relations.

Just like Russian President Vladimir Putin, Biden seems to appreciate Turkey’s effectiveness as a regional power in international politics.

Meanwhile, Erdoğan would like to maintain Turkey’s hard-won position in the international arena via economic growth, active diplomacy and democratic reforms.