While Iran's new president supports the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the current political landscape in the United States presents formidable challenges to swiftly resolving the longstanding tensions between the two nations.
As Masoud Pezeshkian embarks on his presidency in Iran, the prospect of reviving the JCPOA remains tenuous. A staunch supporter of the nuclear deal, Pezeshkian's approach differs significantly from that of his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi. Despite his favorable stance, an intricate political landscape in the United States poses formidable challenges to resolving the longstanding tensions between the two nations.
During his campaign, Pezeshkian consistently promised the removal of sanctions through diplomacy and demonstrated a willingness to reengage with Western powers. His foreign policy team reflects a familiar tone, consisting of seasoned diplomats from former President Hassan Rouhani's administration, such as Javad Zarif and Abbas Araghchi, who are called likely candidates for the position of foreign minister.
However, Pezeshkian assumes office against a backdrop of acute economic strife in Iran, worsened by stringent sanctions and high inflation. The new administration’s primary objective is to alleviate these dire conditions, underscoring the urgent need for renewed negotiations with the U.S. Economic hardship was a pivotal theme in Pezeshkian’s campaign and remains an urgent concern for the Iranian populace.
On the first day of his presidency, he stressed resuming nuclear talks to remove sanctions imposed on Iran in his phone conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron.
Nevertheless, the current political climate in the United States complicates the potential for swift diplomatic engagement. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has prioritized relations with China and Russia, which has relegated Iran to a lesser position on the foreign policy agenda.
Furthermore, any negotiations with Iran are likely to become contentious, particularly with the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, where Republicans may use the negotiations with Iran as a political weapon against the Democrats.
So, significant progress on the JCPOA appears impossible ahead of the U.S. elections in November 2024. If the Democrats maintain control, a potential Vice President Kamala Harris administration could present a narrow window for negotiations between the election and inauguration – a fleeting opportunity for both sides to finalize a deal capable of enduring under her leadership.
Conversely, returning former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House would likely spell doom for the JCPOA. Trump’s previous administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and could demand substantial concessions from Iran for any new accord.
Adding to the complexities, furthermore, Trump's role in the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian military commander, casts a shadow over any potential negotiations, with Iranian officials continuously calling for retribution. Additionally, some reports speculated that Iran had a role in the recent attempt to assassinate Trump, although Iran has rejected accusations regarding plots to kill Trump.
Also, the surprise attack by Hamas on Israel in October 2023 has intensified negative perceptions of Iran among U.S. politicians. As Israel's closest ally, the U.S. is unlikely to pursue negotiations with Tehran while instability persists in the region. In addition, the recent assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has escalated the situation.
The original success of the JCPOA stemmed from long-term negotiations during a relatively calm period – which starkly contrasts with the tumultuous Middle Eastern environment today.
Pezeshkian's administration will have to navigate these complex dynamics with care. The revival of the JCPOA hinges significantly on a Democratic victory in the upcoming U.S. elections and a stabilization of the Middle Eastern conflict. Conversely, Trump’s victory would likely usher in further hardships for Iran, necessitating a strategic recalibration from Pezeshkian's administration.
