Over the past decade, global trade has entered a decisive new era in which the familiar phenomena of integration, efficiency and liberalization have been steadily reshaped by a new principle: sustainable economic security. Trade policy is no longer shaped solely by market dynamics. It is increasingly driven by geopolitical risk, strategic competitiveness, logical diplomacy, technological sovereignty and supply chain resilience. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade growth has slowed from an annual average of 4.6% in the pre-2008 period to below 2.7% between 2019 and 2024, and it is forecasted as 2.4% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026, reflecting the structural nature of this transformation rather than a cyclical downturn.
Export controls, sanctions regimes, investment screening mechanisms and industrial subsidies have become defining features of the global economy. From mid-October 2024 to mid-October 2025, compared to the prior 12-month period, the value of global goods imports affected by new tariffs and other import measures increased more than fourfold, marking the highest coverage in over 15 years of WTO trade monitoring. Undoubtedly, strategic sectors such as clean energy, digital technologies, critical minerals, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing are now firmly embedded within national security frameworks. The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act, the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act and China’s strategic control over rare earth exports illustrate how economic security has become institutionalized within trade policy. What we are witnessing is not a temporary deviation, but a structural transformation of the global trading system.
As this change presents both risks and opportunities for emerging economies, the choice of Türkiye has been clear: Economic security does not require isolation, protectionism or disengagement from global markets. It requires preparedness, resilience and strategic foresight. The new era of the global economy is being characterized by slower trade growth, protectionist trade composition and reshoring trends in terms of the rise of “friend-shoring” strategies. The WTO indicates that established trading relationships are fragmenting, leading to a rise in bilateral and regional trade agreements globally, from 291 in 2017 to 375 in 2025, an increase of 30%. The transformation toward polypolarization has introduced polycrises. Supply chains are no longer optimized as they used to be in textbooks. Reliability, redundancy and geopolitical alignment are more effective in determining them instead of cost efficiency as in the past.
The COVID-19 pandemic, followed by major geopolitical shocks and redesigning of trade patterns, exposed the vulnerabilities of over-concentrated and fragile value chains. In response, Türkiye’s trusted manufacturing, logistics and energy hub is capable of diversifying supply routes and mitigating systemic risks. For instance, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) pipelines, alongside Türkiye’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and gas storage facilities, have further strengthened its role in regional energy security. This positioning is the result of deliberate policy choices aimed at strengthening Türkiye’s economic security architecture, not by closing doors, but by expanding strategic options.
Unlike some advanced economies that have turned inward under the banner of security, Türkiye has pursued a different path. The response of Türkiye has centered on three pillars: strategic diversification, industrial upgrading and proactive diplomacy.
Trade diversification has occurred to reduce excessive dependency on limited markets. Between 2002 and 2025, the share of Türkiye’s exports to non-EU markets increased from 41% to nearly 59%, with significant growth in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. Moreover, industrial modernization to increase both domestic value-added and technological depth with proactive economic diplomacy ensures the country’s integration into global trade networks while defending its strategic interests, which are the roots of the "Century of Türkiye" vision. Today, with our commercial missions in over 270 countries and regions, Türkiye's exports are not only increasing in quantity, but also the share of our medium-high and high-technology product exports in total exports has risen from 30% in 2002 to 43.5%.
Additionally, both green and digital transitions driven by the National Technology Initiative have been transforming Türkiye’s production ecosystem into a more smart, sustainable and inclusive sector rather than being framed as regulatory burdens or compliance costs. It is a fact that Türkiye's renewable energy installed power capacity has surpassed a significant threshold, exceeding 75,000 megawatts, placing it fifth in Europe and 11th worldwide, with accelerating investments in solar, wind and green hydrogen. Similarly, the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy and the Digital Türkiye Initiative are positioning the country at the forefront of the digital economy. The country’s e-commerce volume surpassed TL 3 trillion ($68 billion at the current exchange rate) in 2024, growing by over 61.7% annually. Smart manufacturing systems, digital trade platforms and secure data infrastructures are no longer optional, but they are essential components of economic security in the 21st century.
As economic security narratives gain strength, the risk of fragmentation in the multilateral trading system becomes more pronounced. While protectionist reflexes, discriminatory industrial policies and unilateral trade measures threaten the foundational principles of global trade, Türkiye remains firmly committed to the reform and revitalization of the WTO as the cornerstone of global trade governance to design fairness, sustainability and inclusivity, not on zero-sum rivalries. Economic security, when applied responsibly, can reinforce stability and trust. However, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) simulations show that deep fragmentation could reduce global GDP by up to 7%, disproportionately harming emerging economies. This is why the country’s balanced approach, reconciling openness with resilience, stands out. If misused, economic security risks become a justification for exclusion rather than cooperation.
In a world where trade and technology are increasingly competitive, Türkiye’s experience offers a critical lesson: Economic security means strengthening foundations, not closing borders. Ankara remains committed to building an economy that is resilient, sustainable and globally competitive, while contributing constructively to a fair and secure international trading system. By localizing critical production, investing in clean technologies, expanding digital infrastructure and maintaining diversified partnerships, Türkiye is transforming global uncertainty into a strategic opportunity.
