Nowadays, Türkiye is witnessing historic activities in the fight against terrorism. Despite that, the quiet withdrawal of PKK forces in northern Iraq from areas close to the Turkish border and the symbolic laying down of arms, which started on July 11, have not received sufficient coverage in the global media. It is a critical development for regional stability and the future of the Middle East. This latest development marks a significant step forward in Türkiye's nearly 40-year fight against terrorism, marking the most concrete peace initiative to bring an endless conflict to an end.
Türkiye's 40-year struggle with the PKK is not only a counterterrorism story; it also serves as a geopolitical laboratory for domestic policy, relations with neighbors, regional balance and interaction with global actors. As I discussed in my previous commentary, the PKK's disarmament not only represents a shift in Türkiye's internal security dynamics and the resolution of a structural problem, but also holds the potential to reshape the current map of the Middle East. However, it is also necessary to address the economic and regional consequences of the recent process.
The end of the conflict with the PKK has the potential to open the door to a new beginning that could free the entire region from the economic burden of instability and border tensions.
In Türkiye, an atmosphere of internal peace is a factor that could re-attract international capital. Interest in energy, tourism, agriculture and infrastructure projects could surge, particularly. The resolution of the terror-driven conflict in the east and southeast Anatolia regions of the country could lead to a revival in sustainable agriculture, industry, and service sectors.
At the intergovernmental level, developing trade with neighboring countries offers significant potential. Increasing border trade with Iran, Iraq and Syria will not only contribute to Türkiye's national gross domestic product (GDP) but also has the potential to create a regional development axis. Türkiye, which hosts between 1 to 2 million Iranians annually through border tourism, is likely to establish a similar tourism route with Iraq and Syria. Similarly, after the PKK lays down its weapons, Türkiye may have the opportunity to expand its regional development perspective to Iraq and the Gulf, particularly through the ambitious "Development Road" project stretching from Europe to the Gulf of Oman.
Potential trade corridors are critical in this regard. By establishing an active trade infrastructure along the Habur-Şırnak-Baghdad axis, both official and unofficial ties can be strengthened. In this context, secure transportation routes along the Türkiye-Middle East-Europe axis, centered on the M5 highway in Syria and the Development Road via Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) region and Iraq, could be established.
Regional stability will accelerate infrastructure investments. Türkiye, with its strong global contracting infrastructure, is already playing an active role in the reconstruction of Syria and has been developing its relations with the KRG and Iraq. By investing in infrastructure projects such as hospitals, schools and airports that bear Türkiye's signature, Türkiye can increase its influence in KRG and Iraq, as it has been doing in Syria.
The PKK's disarmament also opens the door to regional water and energy-sharing agreements. Obstacles to cooperation in the Tigris-Euphrates basin, previously rooted in "security concerns," could be removed. This framework has the potential to facilitate water security dialogues among Türkiye, Iraq, Syria and beyond.
Of course, when considering the regional impact of the PKK's disarmament, it's impossible not to mention Israel, which has been cautious about Türkiye's rise to regional power. Some discourses even reach the point of labeling Türkiye as Israel's "ultimate enemy."
Undoubtedly, Türkiye's support for Palestine, its positive relations with Arab, Kurdish and Turkmen groups in Syria, and its role in the state-building process in the new Syria are the primary factors. Türkiye is strongly against the normalization of the genocidal policies of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government. Declarations by Israel's far-right leaders that they have become a border neighbor with Türkiye, that their previous regional actions were merely preliminary steps, and that the ultimate struggle will be with Türkiye, reflect the Israeli perspective in this context.
Türkiye’s pursuit of self-sufficiency in the defense industry, its transformation into a net exporter through innovative policies, and the strategic depth it has gained, make Ankara a rival to Tel Aviv. Similarly, while Israel remains dependent on Western arms aid, as seen during the 12-day war with Iran, Türkiye’s progress toward self-sufficiency in the defense sector is a significant concern for Israel. The two nations are rival powers with differing geopolitical objectives in the Middle East. Israel is increasingly concerned that Türkiye’s influence will continue to grow through strategic cooperation with Iran and other regional actors, positioning it as an alternative power centre challenging Israeli regional dominance.
In this context, if Türkiye can effectively finalize the PKK’s disarmament process and complete its consolidation in Syria, it will deprive Israel of its trump card, which is provoking ethnic minorities in the surrounding countries. With the PKK disarmed, Türkiye would gain the potential to act as a more systematic, institutionalized and authoritative regional actor.
The disarmament process contributes to NATO's focus on the Middle East. As the PKK is no longer a practical threat within NATO’s terrorism framework, it has become easier to secure normative support for Türkiye’s counterterrorism strategy.
Recent developments are also significant for Türkiye’s EU perspective. Resolving the PKK issue has the potential to facilitate the EU’s approach to Türkiye’s democratization efforts. This could generate momentum in areas such as the Customs Union and visa liberalization.
Türkiye’s regional influence is particularly important in light of the growing interest from major powers such as Russia, China and India. Türkiye’s centralized and balanced position holds the potential to offer a compelling alternative to the Russia-Iran alignment. In other words, Türkiye is becoming a force with which major powers seeking to influence the Middle East will be compelled to cooperate
In conclusion, the PKK’s disarmament is not merely an ordinary rupture for Türkiye; it should be interpreted as a sign of broader transformation taking shape across multiple domains. Admittedly, we are still at the beginning of this process, and the potential gains outlined here can only be realized if the process continues without disruption. Nonetheless, it must be acknowledged that the disarmament effort extends far beyond restoring public safety. It signifies a Türkiye that employs diplomatic soft power, builds development cooperation and economic partnerships, promotes social inclusion and redefines its strategic trajectory – as an actor that advances peace and deepens its influence both domestically and across the region.
