Iran’s foreign policy in 2022 was a full-scale disaster. First, the Middle Eastern country could not revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. Likewise, the scandal of providing drones for Russia in the invasion of Ukraine and the crackdown of widespread protests and nationwide strikes around the country have led to more sanctions against Iran.
Additionally, Tehran has faced unprecedented isolation from the international community and the 54-member U.N. adopted a resolution to remove Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women. Israel, Iran’s nemesis, has developed its relations with Arab countries. China, Iran’s close ally, has strengthened its ties with Saudi Arabia and has brought ownership of three Iranian islands into question.
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Middle Eastern country has not experienced such isolation in decades. The country has erupted and people have taken to the streets. The death of Mahsa Amini, the Iranian woman who died in police custody, has been the leading cause of the widespread protests and unstable situation in Iran. Some analysts call it the beginning of a revolution. Over 500 people have been killed and some 18,000 have been arrested. The recent incidents in Iran have pushed U.S. President Joe Biden's administration toward a watershed moment to take fundamental steps toward Tehran in 2023. In this situation, questions continue to swirl about the future of American policy toward Iran.
Clearly, the Washington strategy toward Tehran will be shaped in 2023 by answering many questions about Iran. Will 2023 be the last year of confrontation between the two sides? Will the Middle Eastern country still exist on Dec. 31, 2023? Is diplomacy still on the table, or would coercion options such as military actions be considered? Is regime change a pragmatic option?
After hostile relations between Washington and Tehran for decades, it is a critical time for policymaking, and answering these questions would be the preoccupation of President Joe Biden and his advisors.
After the domestic protests and broad repression by the regime, the diplomacy option with Iran has been taken off the table, but the Biden administration still refuses to declare the end of the negotiations.
“The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran is dead, but the United States will not formally announce it,” said Biden.
Biden's recent remarks demonstrate that there is no path forward for the Iran deal, but the U.S., through a wily strategy, tends to keep the window of diplomacy open.
Although some Iranian opposition groups have imposed severe pressure on Washington to stay away from negotiating with Tehran, American officials know that if Iran tamps down the demonstrations in a few months and the revolution still continues, diplomacy would be the only available option.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, “We continue to believe that diplomacy is the most effective, the most sustainable means by which to realize that commitment on the basis that is both permanent and verifiable.”
In addition, after recent unrest, some Iranian protesters and some Republicans believe that the Biden administration should take measures toward a regime change strategy in Iran.
Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the debate on regime change over dictator governments has become a focal point in U.S. foreign policy. After full-scale intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan and partial military intervention in Libya, some believe that Iran and North Korea could be the other aims under the strategy.
Clearly, Democrats are strong opponents of any overt intervention to replace a foreign government, and they are wary of verifying this strategy in public spaces.
“We have tried these tactics in the past. However well-intentioned, they have not worked,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said.
So far, the Biden administration has not supported the regime change strategy in Iran to remove the Middle Eastern country's government, but this does not mean that the Biden administration has entirely sidelined the strategy.
Some critics point out that the Biden administration in foreign policy is a follower of the Obama administration’s road map. This strategy prevents the U.S. from being involved in Iran’s internal affairs and encourages U.S. diplomats to conclude the arms-control agreement with Tehran. However, let us put the shoe on the other foot. After the revolution launched by Iranian youths and the unstable situation of the Middle Eastern country in recent months, U.S. officials stand ready to utilize the opportunity and find the lowest-cost way to collapse the Islamic regime without using U.S. troops.
So, Biden refrains from announcing the end of diplomacy. At the same time, he could start to support protests by helping Iranians access free internet, comprehensive pressure against the Middle Eastern country in global organizations and coalitions, increasing economic sanctions, organizing Iranians abroad to hold regular demonstrations and supporting the media against the regime. So, U.S. officials could expedite the regime change process and beware of direct intervention.
“Don’t worry, we’re gonna free Iran,” Biden said on the sidelines of a campaign rally for Democratic Rep. Mike Levin. He added, “They’re gonna free themselves pretty soon.”
Iran immediately condemned Biden’s remarks, mentioning that some U.S. officials in contact with Tehran reformed the irrational statements of the president.
American officials and their European allies have pressured the regime to change its behavior in lieu of pursuing a regime change strategy. It seems now if the window for negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal is closed, the U.N. Security Council in 2023 would adopt resolutions against the regime to condemn Iran’s nuclear program. So, the regime change strategy depends on the death of the diplomacy option and the priorities of the Western countries could be changed against Iran.
Clearly, 2023 will be a momentous year for Iran’s policy and its relations with the U.S. The regime has faced successive crises in light of foreign pressure and domestic turmoil. According to some speculation, the Iranian supreme leader, at 83 years old, is ill and any change in the top echelons of power in Iran amid the protests could shake the regime’s foundations. And one step further, if diplomacy fails, the Biden administration may support the coercion options such as military action to destroy Iranian nuclear sites via Israeli forces. In this situation, military coercion will be at the forefront of the U.S. approach.
Israeli air force plans this year will likely focus on operations in Iran. The 2023 training program will carry crucial importance; the air force said that an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites is a real possibility.
Undoubtedly, the protests will continue in 2023 and the diplomacy will not conclude this year. The regime will probably overextend crackdowns of protesters and increase uranium enrichment. Since January 2021, the Biden administration has not solved the Iran nuclear issue and wasting time in 2023 for diplomacy with Iran is an illogical strategy. Biden, in 2023, could focus on the human rights issue and revolution in Iran because the regime change will remove a troublemaker regime, not only its issues.
