The terror-free Türkiye initiative took another turn last month when the PKK terrorist group announced its withdrawal from Türkiye, months after it declared the beginning of disarmament. Yet, Türkiye is cautious about next steps as the PKK’s Syria wing YPG apparently overshadow the initiative. The YPG did not join other wings of the terrorist group to dissolve itself, and Ankara is worried it may “poison” the initiative launched by government ally Devlet Bahçeli in 2024.
Ankara is also cautious about the next steps of the PKK, although President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signalled hope after a meeting on Oct. 30 with a delegation from the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party). Commenting on the meeting on Saturday, Erdoğan said it was constructive and instilled hope and they would soon “witness the reflections of the meeting” without further elaborating. The DEM Party is linked to the PKK and served as a messenger between the PKK’s jailed ringleader Abdullah Öcalan and Parliament, as well as the terrorist group itself. Öcalan has responded to Bahçeli’s call to make a call to the PKK to lay down arms and said in a written statement last February that the terrorist group should dissolve itself. In May, the PKK announced dissolution. The DEM Party is expected to hold another meeting with Öcalan this week.
Türkiye insists that the initiative should move forward with unilateral steps by the PKK, while the PKK calls for steps to be taken by Ankara in exchange for dissolution. The PKK’s disarmament is expected to be followed by legal steps by Parliament, namely for leniency in sentences of PKK members. But this phase in the initiative will begin only after the terrorist group fully abandons arms. Türkiye’s intelligence agency monitors the process, especially in Iraq where the group has largest number of members. After the full dissolution, integration of those who abandoned arms may be considered though it is not expected before the beginning of next year.
At the same time, Turkish authorities monitor the progress in integration of the YPG into the Syrian army, per a March deal between the group and the new administration in Damascus. Authorities view it as a “red line” in the initiative. Ankara earlier hinted a military offensive if the YPG reneges on the integration deal and keeps its status as a terrorist group. The YPG currently seeks a new deal with Damascus for maintaining three divisions in Hassakeh, Raqqa and Deir az-Zour of Syria, though Damascus is not warm toward this idea, likely due to high number of Arab population in these areas, which outnumbers Kurds the YPG find recruits from. A faster integration process in Syria will likely accelerate the initiative in Türkiye.
Türkiye also monitors PKK members who abandoned arms and the intelligence agency reportedly has a list of those who joined the YPG after leaving the PKK in Iraq. The intelligence also checks reports that some PKK members handed over their weapons to the YPG. Ankara will likely not tolerate PKK members joining the YPG and then integrating into the Syrian army.
