More than 2,000 landslides occurred this winter, at times when the temperatures rapidly increased after cold, snowy spells. Although not all were deadly or inflicted serious damage, their scope points to the growing risk of the catastrophic event fueled by global warming.
A study by Istanbul Technical University's (ITÜ) Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences shows landslides affected 322 areas, including residential ones, across the country, this winter.
Associate professor Tolga Görüm, of the institute, says Turkey has experienced a higher rate of snowfall this year, compared to past years, especially on higher ground.
“Snowfall was dense in the east, north, eastern and western Black Sea regions and in Istanbul. In March, after the snowfall, we saw a swift surge in temperatures, an atmospheric river from Africa contributing to temperatures,” he said, referring to an aerial, narrow corridor of the atmosphere with a high concentration of moisture.
There is a pattern to landslides, according to Görüm, starting from the west and later stretching to the east. “From March to April, there were more than 2,000 landslides. They were particularly devastating for (the Black Sea provinces) Ordu, Samsun and Trabzon, damaging, leading to collapses in residential areas,” he told Anadolu Agency (AA) on Tuesday. He also highlighted that landslides were about “20 times more” in the region including those three provinces, compared to past years. “They are more intense, especially in eastern parts of Black Sea,” he warned.
Floods and landslides are quite common in the Black Sea region, which usually has the most rainfall compared to other areas. Though landslides are generally more associated with heavy rainfall in the region, snowfall contributes to the disaster, which also claims lives. Görüm says it is a major threat to residential areas, as well as a disruption for daily life, giving the example of a landslide at Bolu Mountain Tunnel, a major crossing point connecting many cities in inner parts of Turkey to the west. “For one day, this situation slowed down the traffic. It was unexpected,” Görüm says.
“It all adds up to a social risk, interrupting life, causing economic losses, harming the agriculture,” said Görüm, who works on creating landslide maps for Turkey for potential risky areas with fellow researchers. “The mapping will help for early warning systems,” he says, adding that every landslide transforms the structure of soil and its inclination.
The fallout from climate change is being more felt in the Black Sea region where seawater temperatures rose by almost 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). Scientists announced in March that seawater temperature off the coast of Rize province, for instance, was between 9.5-10 degrees Celsius compared to the average March figure of 8.1 degrees Celsius. Unprecedented downpours confined to certain areas, ensuing flash floods and landslides have been a common feature of the usually rainy Black Sea region.
Turkey is already tested by climate change, which aggravates disasters like forest fires and floods. Experts also warn about rising temperatures in the already warm Aegean and Mediterranean regions. The rise in seawater temperatures also plays a role in heavier rainfall, with the evaporation of more water.
