October rainfall in Türkiye’s Marmara region rose 39% above the 1991-2020 average, reaching the highest levels recorded in the past 10 years, according to Meteorology General Directorate data compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA).
The long-term average for October rainfall in the region is 72 millimeters. In comparison, rainfall measured 13.9 mm in October 2024 and 99.8 mm this October. Some areas, particularly around Çanakkale and Balıkesir, saw rainfall increase by more than 100% compared with historical averages.
The rainfall set decade-high records in Balıkesir, Bilecik, Bursa, Çanakkale, Edirne, and Yalova, while Kocaeli and Sakarya experienced their highest October rainfall in 15 and 12 years, respectively. Cities including Istanbul, Kocaeli, Yalova, Bursa, and Balıkesir recorded between 15 and 20 rainy days during the month.
Adil Tek, a meteorology engineer at Boğaziçi University’s Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, said precipitation exceeded averages in Marmara, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea regions. “Systems from the central Mediterranean usually affect western and northern parts of the country in autumn. This year, there were slightly more systems, which pushed rainfall above average, especially in the Aegean, Marmara, and Mediterranean regions,” he said.
Tek noted that October rainfall in Marmara also rose compared with last year. At Kandilli, the long-term average is 85.6 kilograms per square meter, while this year it measured 96 kilograms per square meter. He added that low-pressure and frontal systems from the central Mediterranean contributed to the increase.
In contrast, November has been unusually dry. “So far, only 25 kilograms of rainfall have been recorded here, compared with the long-term average of 105 kilograms. Even if rainfall increases by the end of November, it is unlikely to reach the long-term average. This poses risks for reservoir levels and agricultural water needs,” Tek said.
Looking ahead, Tek said December rainfall is expected to be above average, with temperatures remaining higher than seasonal norms. He predicted that January rainfall will also be at or above average, with a higher chance of snow in Istanbul late in the month. Similar conditions are expected in February, while March rainfall and temperatures are likely to return closer to seasonal norms.
“While the winter may provide some relief for reservoirs, these are short-term solutions. In the long term, we are moving toward significant drought,” Tek warned.
