The average temperature in Türkiye’s Aegean region is forecast to rise by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in the next 10 years, according to recent research conducted by two associate professors in universities from Bursa and Izmir.
The research conducted by associate professor Babak Vaheddoost, a faculty member in the Department of Civil Engineering at Bursa Technical University, and associate professor Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari of the Faculty of Engineering at Yaşar University in Izmir analyzing changes in temperatures changes between 1973 and 2020 revealed that temperatures tended to increase.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Vaheddoost said that, within the scope of their research, they observed the meteorological and hydrological drought in the Büyük Menderes, Küçük Menderes and Gediz basins in the Aegean region, as well as the temperature trends.
"The temperature has increased by an average of approximately 0.20-0.35 degrees Celsius per year. Therefore, we predict that the next 10 years will be at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer,” Vaheddoost said.
“The results also indicate that the severity of drought increases from the coastal areas toward the inland, meaning that the coastal areas are less affected by drought."
Providing an example from Izmir related to temperature values, Vaheddoost mentioned that the average temperature in Izmir is 18 degrees Celsius, and they predict it will increase to 20 degrees Celsius within 10 years.
Vaheddoost emphasized that with the increase in temperature, more severe and longer-lasting drought periods are expected in the future.
He mentioned that there could be an increase in forest fires, as well as significant changes in the region's climate, in addition to meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought.
Regarding the problems that the increase in temperature in the region will cause, Vaheddoost said: "What does a warmer climate mean? This means that plants will need more irrigation. On the one hand, think of forested areas; the forest floor will become drier, making it more prone to fires, which will occur more frequently. Rivers will decrease, and with a decrease in the water quantity in rivers, we may face problems in energy production and drinking water.”
“The effects of drought won't be felt suddenly but will definitely result in less available water in the long term," he added.
Regarding water management, Vaheddoost pointed out that over 70% of Earth's surface is covered by water, and in the worst-case scenario, seawater can be purified for use.
However, he stressed that this method would disrupt the balance of nature. He emphasized the need for more innovative, modern and forward-thinking steps in water management.
Vaheddoost shared the view that the main reason for climate change negatively affecting water resources is human activities.
"The world's climate has been changing from time immemorial. For example, there have been at least five ice ages. The world has warmed up more and cooled down more, but due to the activities of humans in recent years, the climate is changing more rapidly. Because it changes more quickly, the possibility of humans, animals and living beings adapting to it decreases," he explained.
Furthermore, he also highlighted the importance of addressing the drought issue to prevent it from turning into a water shortage crisis.
He also said that preventing the approximately 30% average water loss and leakage in the water supply system in Türkiye could effectively conserve water resources.
