The annual inflation rate in Türkiye is seen slowing down slightly to 32.5% in September, according to two recent polls, which also indicated the month-over-month rate would likely be 2.5% or 2.6%.
Both polls from Reuters and finance-focused Bloomberg HT broadcaster showed on Friday that the annual consumer price index (CPI) is likely to touch 32.5% this month, marking a mild decrease compared to nearly 33% in August.
The monthly inflation rate is expected to be 2.6% in September, driven by increases in education and food prices, according to a Reuters poll. The other survey indicated a 2.5% increase for the month.
The median estimate of 13 economists in the Reuters poll showed that monthly inflation rose to 2.6% from 2.04% in August. Forecasts ranged from 2.3% to 3.5%. Year-over-year inflation forecasts ranged between 32.09% and 33.6%, down from 32.95% in August.
Economists said that price hikes for education and related services, as the school year started, as well as price hikes for eggs, meat and other food basket items, will impact September inflation.
Morgan Stanley said the inflation data will be closely watched, as the central bank has recently highlighted food and services-related inflationary pressures.
"Barring any significant upside surprises in September inflation or its components, we expect the CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye) to continue its rate cuts, but reduce the size of the cut to 200bp, from 250bp in September. This, in turn, would bring the one-week repo rate to 38.50%," Morgan Stanley said.
Earlier this month, the Turkish central bank slowed its easing cycle with a 250-basis-point rate cut, bringing the policy rate to 40.5% following higher-than-expected inflation and growth figures.
Inflation is expected to drop to 30% by year-end, according to a Reuters poll. The CBRT set a forecast range of 25%-29% and Turkish officials have expressed optimism about likely seeing inflation dip below 30% by the end of 2025.
The central bank said it will review its policy step size on a meeting-by-meeting basis and tighten its stance if there is a significant deviation in the inflation outlook from the interim targets.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release September inflation data at 7 a.m. GMT on Oct. 3.
