In literature, wars, which are defined as large-scale armed conflicts between the armed forces of states, are classified in several ways. There are many types of war and warfare based on their methods, objectives, terrains, scopes, stages, eras, strategic doctrines and types of weapons. In terms of scope, wars are classified as local, regional and systemic.
Local wars are sub-national civil conflicts or armed conflicts between small states, in which the interests of systemic powers are not involved. Although such conflicts may lead to regional instability and endanger global peace, they generally have an impact on communities and remain limited to a particular region.
Regional wars are armed conflicts, tensions or disputes limited to a particular geographic region involving regional countries, non-state actors and proxy forces. These conflicts, driven by territorial disputes, sectarian violence, and competition for resources, are interconnected and prolonged. They often involve global powers supporting opposing sides, thus complicating resolution efforts.
Global wars are major conflicts of modern times that have led to millions of deaths, the collapse of large-scale states, the redrawing of state boundaries, technological revolutions, and the transformation of the world system. Global wars often end with a change in the world hegemon. For example, the two World Wars resulted in the collapse of British global hegemony and the establishment of American hegemony.
Recently, for various reasons, all wars have had far greater consequences than expected. Local wars are easily turning into regional wars, and regional wars are easily escalating into systemic wars.
The first reason is the intensification of the globalization process, resulting in increased interdependence among countries and events. Regional and global dynamics are heavily interconnected. Nations around the world complement one another. In every state or region, some issues concern the entire world. For example, the war in Ukraine has led to a global food crisis, and a war in Iran would lead to an energy crisis. A potential crisis in Taiwan would lead to a semiconductor (chip) shortage.
Therefore, regional wars have a high potential to escalate into global conflict. Problems in small countries create regional effects; regional problems, in turn, create global effects. Ultimately, one state cannot treat another state as it wishes. States must act very cautiously. This situation demonstrates the boomerang effect of wars, in which actions can escalate and later come back to harm those who initiated them. When states punish the other side, they and their allies are also negatively affected. In such an environment, even the most powerful state may fail to achieve its objectives in war.
The second reason is the use of new technologies. The rapid technological modernization is shaping regional and global military balances. Especially, the proliferation of long-range missiles and mass-produced drones is lowering the threshold for asymmetric attacks and increasing the likelihood of the failure of deterrence strategies. A new security environment has emerged as a result of technological innovations. Today’s wars are more protracted and carried out with hybrid tactics.
One of the best examples of a regional war turning into a systemic war is the Ukrainian-Russian War. The war in Ukraine, initially a regional conflict, later transformed into a systemic war in terms of the number and nature of the states involved, as well as its overall impact. Most Western states have participated in this war, directly or indirectly. One of the most important implications of this war has been its effect on the global economy. As two of the largest exporters of grain, the warring states disrupted the grain trade. The conflict has led to a global grain crisis.
The American and Israeli attacks against Iran have also led to a regional war, which shortly turned into a systemic war. The Iranian state, waging an existential struggle and a fight for survival, attacked many states in the Middle East that host American military bases. Eventually, 13 different states were involved in the war. Iran is pursuing a multi-layered and multi-stage war strategy.
When Iran decided to close the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict was transformed into a global war. After the closure of the strait, through which approximately 20% of the world’s energy resources pass, many countries began to suffer from energy shortages. The United States had to allow Iranian oil to reach international markets and lift the embargo on Russian oil.
In addition, the possibility of closing the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is causing concern worldwide. If the U.S. and Israel escalate the war by initiating a ground war, Iran may ask its proxy actor in the region, the Houthis, to close the strait. Therefore, they will deliver a second global shock to the world economy. At a certain point, when the cost of escalating the war becomes unbearable, regional and global states, influenced by the regional development, may intervene in the conflict.
The rising disputes between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. are reshaping the Middle East’s security landscape. Although the U.S. remains the primary security actor for many regional states, its regional allies are simultaneously expanding cooperation with other global powers, namely China and Russia, in areas such as energy, infrastructure, and arms procurement. This will have important implications, reducing their dependence on long-term American engagement and strengthening their pursuit of strategic autonomy.
Ultimately, the war has demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the U.S. deterrence strategy. Considering that even advanced American fighter jets and warships have been targeted, it can be argued that U.S. deterrence has weakened. This situation will negatively influence the global perception of the U.S.
