The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last summer for 12 days and caused widespread damage; yet, the tension between the parties has not ended. For the final showdown, they are attacking Iran with the claim that it had been posing an imminent threat to their national security. It appears neither of the two aggressor states has a chance of completely resolving the problem. On the one hand, the likelihood of the U.S. and Israel winning this war is very low. On the other hand, Iran does not fight to win, but to endure. That is, the war is a life-or-death struggle for Iran.
Neither the U.S. nor Israel has been able to articulate the real reason for the war, either last year or this year. They want to punish Iran, but they lack a real and concrete strategy. Israel wants a weakened Iran in the region, but it does not want any other state to fill the power vacuum Iran would leave behind. Israel has begun to openly express its grand strategy regarding the future of the region, while the U.S. is simply trying to follow Israel’s lead.
When we analyze the war, we see that this one is quite different from last year’s. Iran is much better prepared. Unlike the previous conflict, Iran has inflicted significant damage on the U.S. and Israel in the ongoing war in the region. Iran has attacked American military bases in the Gulf and strategic locations in key Israeli cities. Today, the two aggressor states do not know how to stop the war.
Many observers have begun to argue that the likelihood of the war turning into a war of attrition is very high. Three states, namely the U.S., Israel and Iran, have contributed to the spread of the conflict, each having its own reasons for escalation. Israel is trying to drag all regional states into its war to create regional chaos. The U.S., unable to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, is also trying to involve regional and global powers in the war. Iran is attacking regional countries that host American military facilities and trying to force them to deter the aggressors. It is now clear that more than 10 states are directly or indirectly involved in the war.
At this point, the question everyone is asking is: Whose war is this? Many people claim this is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war. This is not true because the majority of the Israeli public and all political actors, including the main opposition party, have expressed their support for both the Gaza genocide and the attack on Iran.
No effective Israeli political actor is questioning the policies of the Netanyahu government. Not only those inside the country, but also the Zionist lobby in the West fully supports Israel’s attacks. Therefore, this is the war of the Israeli government and its people. In fact, Netanyahu’s political alternatives are even more aggressive and more racist than his. The Israeli people mistakenly believe that the more territory they expand into, the safer they will be. On the contrary, Israel’s aggressive rhetoric and policies, targeting all regional states, are isolating it both in the region and globally.
Similarly, many argue that this is not the war of the American people and government. Many American politicians and journalists claim that President Donald Trump is being held hostage by Israel, mainly because his name appeared in the Epstein files. It is clear for now that Trump, who has achieved great success so far by using force and making huge profits at low cost, will have to pay a heavy price. Most Americans oppose the war. Some went further, claiming it was unconstitutional as Trump does not run institutions or seek authorization from Congress. So far, the U.S. has already lost trillions of dollars.
Given the decision to send 5,000 marine forces to the region, it appears the U.S. is determined to continue this war of attrition. The U.S. government does not care if American soldiers die fighting Israeli aggression; in fact, it wants them to.
If things continue like this, the war will turn into a quagmire for the U.S. The U.S. government is acting as a proxy actor for Israel. Israel has always been a burden for the U.S., but now it has become a burden that the U.S. can no longer bear. Therefore, everyone expects the reaction of the establishment in the U.S.
Although it is generally accepted that this war is not the war of the Arab and Muslims states, many regional states have been attacked by Iran in its response to the American and Israeli aggression. However, despite being targeted, the Gulf states did not retaliate against the attacks. Arab and Muslim states are hesitant to go to war for the sake of Israeli illegitimate expansionism. Arabs do not want to die for one of the most critical enemies of the Arab nation and the Islamic religion.
Additionally, most Arab states have lost trust in the two warring sides in the region. They have clearly experienced that the U.S. has not prioritized the national security of the Gulf states. Instead, Washington has prioritized the national security of Israel. The Gulf states have also realized that Iran remains an imminent threat to them. Eventually, growing insecurity will push the Gulf countries towards new alternative structures.
No one in the West or the East wants to take responsibility for this war. No state has responded positively to Trump’s call to protect ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. For example, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius explicitly stated, “This is not our war, and we have not started it.” Many states in Europe, such as France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, refused to join the U.S.-led coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also rejected the U.S. call to join the war. He explained that “we will not be drawn into the wider war.”
Similarly, Kaja Kallas, the high representative for foreign affairs and security and vice president of the European Commission, also explained that this is not Europe’s war. Even Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of the NATO alliance, has underlined that the war is against international law and therefore NATO should stay out of any involvement in it.
