Türkiye's "demographic window of opportunity" could shut well before its original 2035 estimate, as the country records one of the sharpest declines in fertility rates globally, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz warned on Wednesday.
Speaking ahead of a meeting of the Population Policies Board, established in early 2025 to address the matter, Yılmaz said Türkiye has entered a "demographic turning point," saying that the government sees population policies as an "existential issue," a term often used by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
The warning comes as Türkiye faces the lowest birth rates in its modern history. Erdoğan has labeled the trend a looming demographic crisis, saying Türkiye is facing a "disaster." He has declared the 2026-2035 period the "Decade of Family and Population."
"The next 10 years will be a critical period during which lasting steps will be taken to further strengthen the family institution, the foundation of society, and to preserve our dynamic and young population structure," Yılmaz said.
Türkiye's total fertility rate fell to 1.48 in 2024, far below 2.08 recorded in 2017, placing it well below both the replacement level of 2.10 and the global average of 2.25.
"This pace of decline has made Türkiye the fifth country in the world where fertility has fallen the most over the past 10 years," Yılmaz said.
He stressed that the trend threatens the country's "demographic window of opportunity," often called the "Demographic Dividend," the period in which the proportion of dependents (children and the elderly) is less than half of the working-age population.
"If current trends continue, the sharp fall in fertility could cause this window to close much earlier than the expected date of 2035," Yılmaz warned.
While Türkiye's population now exceeds 86 million, ranking first in Europe, Yılmaz cautioned of a rapid increase in the elderly population ratio.
As of 2024, the share of the population aged 65 and over reached a historic high of 10.6%, with the figure exceeding 20% in some provinces.
"If the current scenario continues, projections indicate that in the near future, a significant portion of our population will consist of people aged 65 and over," Yılmaz said.
This, Yılmaz says, would directly affect many areas, including the country's social security and care systems.
"This issue occupies a central place in our country's development journey, which aims to grow wealthy before growing old," he said.
Türkiye is classified as a "very aged population" country by the United Nations criteria. Population projections show that by 2050, one in every four people is expected to be over the age of 65. By 2075, one in every three, and by 2100, four out of every 10 people will be in this age group.
The decline is also evident at the regional level. The number of provinces with a fertility rate of three children or more fell from 10 in 2017 to just one in 2024, Yılmaz said.
Similarly, the number of provinces with fertility rates below the population replacement threshold rose from 57 in 2017 to 71 in 2024, he added.
Erdoğan, a longtime champion of bigger families, had declared 2025 as the "Year of the Family." In November, he described the current birth rates as "sounding loud alarm bells for our future," and repeatedly warned that the matter is "self-destructive" for Türkiye.
Experts attribute the decline to factors like higher education levels, as more women are prioritizing education instead of building a family, as well as economic challenges.
Yılmaz particularly noted rural areas, where he said aging rates are much higher than the national average, partly due to the loss of the young population.
As part of incentives, the government is offering interest-free marriage loans, allocating more social housing projects for youth, and pushing for a policy to increase maternity and child allowances.
Yılmaz said supporting fertility and family formation is a "vital necessity" to achieve an economic leap without losing demographic dynamism.
