Wall Street investment banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. both raised their Turkish economic growth forecasts on Wednesday on the back of strength in the country’s domestic economy and its export sector.
Turkey’s economy grew a massive 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, official data showed Wednesday, rebounding powerfully after a sharp slowdown a year earlier driven by COVID-19 restrictions.
It expanded 0.9% compared to the previous quarter on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) showed.
JPMorgan said it had revised its 2021 growth domestic product (GDP) growth estimate to 8.4% from 6.8%. It kept the 2022 forecast unchanged at 3.4%.
Goldman upped its 2021 forecast even further, to 9.5% year-on-year from 7.5% previously.
“Overall, the Turkish economy has been able to grow faster than we thought without a deterioration in its external balances, as the pickup in foreign demand has been very supportive,” its economists said in a note.
The $765 billion (TL 6.35 trillion) economy grew 1.8% last year, despite a 10.4% plunge in the second quarter, one of only a few globally to avoid annual contraction amid the initial pandemic fallout.
Separate data on Wednesday reinforced the picture of a continuing expansion, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing rising to 54.1 in August from 54 a month earlier.
The government officially forecasts 5.8% growth this year, though Treasury and Finance Minister Lütfi Elvan has said it could top 8% annually with a robust April-June performance.
A day earlier, international credit ratings agency Moody’s upgraded Turkey's 2021 economic growth forecast from 5% to 6%.
In its Global Macro Outlook 2021-2022 report, it also revised the growth expectation for 2022 from 3.5% to 3.6%.
It noted that a recovery in the tourism sector supported the growth in the Turkish economy thanks to the ongoing global economic recovery and progress in COVID-19 vaccination.
