The second Strategic Foresight Report titled "2021 Strategic Foresight Report - The EU's capacity and freedom to act," which was made public by the European Commission last Wednesday, was important in terms of the EU's assessment of its capacity to respond to global trends and its freedom of action.
It was eye-opening in that we could once again examine the invaluable contributions that Turkey, whose EU candidacy process continues, can make to the EU's capacity to respond and freedom of action with its resources and capabilities. The report should be read carefully as it studies the EU's ability to produce solutions and policies against global issues that will affect the future of the EU.
Four global trends have been defined in terms of their power to deeply affect the global economic-political system. The first, of course, is climate change and other environmental challenges. Every 0.5-degree Celsius (less than 1 degree Fahrenheit) increase in the world's average temperature increases our risk of encountering extremely dangerous natural disasters in geographic regions that have never seen such temperatures, droughts, forest fires, major floods and glacier meltdowns.
Digital "hyper-accessibility" and technological transformation affect every aspect and every second of our daily and business lives. The pressure on democratic models of governance and on democratic values have also been identified as another global trend. And, finally, the change in global order and demography took its place as the fourth trend.
The report states that the G-7, which represented 60% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 1975, now represents only 40%, and that we are faced with a new multipolar global order; that global power will be redistributed toward 2050. It also indicated that, in a world where the "geo-economic center" is shifting to the east, the E-7 economies, which include Turkey and two-thirds of the G-7 economies, will capture a 60% share themselves by 2050.
While the EU's Strategic Foresight Report points out that the competition between the U.S. and China has become one of the topics that most affect the geopolitical balances, it also mentions that the global competitive climate arising from China and Russia will have many geopolitical and geostrategic consequences. The report also focuses on 10 challenges that will test the EU's global leadership and that may also lead to new opportunities.
Whether for "establishing a sustainable and resilient health and food system," for "working with global partners to promote peace, security and stability," for "diversifying and securing the supply of raw materials" or for "building the financial system and economic system resilient against future risks," the details of the 10 "challenges" and every comment, every analysis, every emphasis on how the EU will strengthen its global leadership ability and how it will make it sustainable, once again confirms how necessary and indispensable Turkey's full membership to the EU is.
While a multipolar global order is now in front of us with all its reality, Turkey's role as a strong and democratic partner for the EU's trans-Atlantic relations will be invaluable for the future of Europe. In order to fully comprehend these details, I suggest a careful review of the report.
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